Peace Deals, Bad Politics

Peace Deals, Bad Politics

D. Suba Chandran

What is happening in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the Federally Administered Tribal Agencies (FATA) of Pakistan? Three related events are taking place, complicating the entire scenario in this region, with five major actors in play, with different objectives and strategies.

The three events are: deadlock and the eventual break up of peace deals between the government of Pakistan and local Taliban; increasing attempts by local Taliban to impose their writ, in terms of establishing Shariah, destroying girls schools and imposing a ban on music; and attacks by US led forces inside Pakistan. Each of them needs to be analysed in detail.

Ever since the civilian governments have been established in Islamabad and Peshawar at national and provincial levels, the PPP and ANP led governments made an effort to negotiate with the local Taliban. A series of peace deals were concluded separately in Swat, Waziristan, Bajaur and other agencies. The main content of these deals focused around local Taliban not using Pakistan’s territory for cross border terrorism and not challenging the write of State inside the tribal regions. On the other hand, these deals expected, that the State would release the prisoners. This is not the first time, there have been deals between the State and the Taliban elements; there were at least three major deals since 2004. All of them failed, because the local Taliban never kept its part of the deal.

Second, local Taliban continue its efforts to establish its influence in the tribal regions. Numerous girls schools have been destroyed in FATA and many number of music shops were attacked and materials burnt. What is important is, this effort of local Taliban is not limited to the tribal regions alone. Slowly, they have been spreading to the settled districts of the NWFP as well.

Third, since Pakistan has failed to stop cross border terrorism, the US led forces in Afghanistan has been regularly carrying out attacks from across the Durand Line. The recent attack on a security post in Mohamand Agency, manned by para military forces was an example of this. This particular attack raised a controversy, as it killed many Pakistani para-military soldiers, besides some locals. Worse, following the above attack, Karzai, the President of Pakistan openly issued a warning, threatening Pakistan of hot pursuit.

The problem in all the above is due to the five actors who are involved: Pakistan, al Qaeda and Taliban, “Pakistani Taliban”, Afghanistan and US led forces. Pakistan is less keen on Taliban and al Qaeda carrying out a bloody conflict in Afghanistan. It is more keen on preventing the local Taliban from carrying out such attacks within Pakistan’s territory. Al Qaeda and Taliban are more keen targeting Afghan and US led security forces; if Pakistan government initiate any effort to curb their activities, they would retaliate even against their former supporters. Local Taliban, on the one hand are supporting al Qadea and Taliban in Afghanistan and on the other hand are attempting to establish their writ in the Tribal regions and adjoining territories. The US security forces and Afghanistan wants to eliminate the threat from Taliba and al Qaeda, so that there could be peace. Given the differences within the above five actors, conflict and violence across the Durand Line is likely to continue.