Musharraf: Has the Count Down Started?

Musharraf: Has the Count Down Started?

D Suba Chandran

Is Musharraf on his way out in Pakistan? Has he become the “relic of the past”, as Asif Ali Zardari, leader of the PPP, commented recently? How much support does this move have within the Army and in the White House? What are the likely implications of an early exit of Musharraf?

Ever since the restoration of judiciary became a political issue, between the coalition partners in Pakistan, serious doubts have been raised on Musharraf continuing as the President. The link between the restoration of judiciary and the continuation of Musharraf is obvious. The restoration of judiciary, as demanded by the PML-N, lawyers and a section within the civil society, means reinstatement of Iftikhar Choudhary as the Chief Justice, besides scrapping down numerous measures taken by Musharraf towards clipping the powers of Pakistan’s judiciary.

The personal animosity between Musharraf and Iftikhar Choudhary is well known. The general expectation within Pakistan has been that, once Iftikhar Choudhary is back as the Chief Justice and the judiciary is restored, the first order of business will be to look into the election of Musharraf as the President. The case on the election of Musharraf as the President, is unlikely to stand legal arguments against him. In all probabilities, if this case is taken by the Supreme Court, it is highly likely, that the verdict will go against Musharraf. In that case, he will not have any other option, other than resigning.

However, the question of Musharraf’s continuation is more political than legal. If the leading political parties of Pakistan, decide to impeach the President, through legal procedures and powers vested in the Parliament, then such a process is likely to succeed, as PPP-PML-N combination have adequate strength.

Will the Parliament initiate such a process? Unlikely. For various reasons. One, the PPP, is not in favour of the impeachment, though the PML-N has been asking for it. PML-N on its own, or along with other parties (minus the PPP), will not be able to mobilize adequate support to impeach Musharraf. So much would depend on PPP’s position on Musharraf. Two, the Parliament, would rather prefer the judiciary to do this job, instead of doing on its own. Three, PPP will also be wary of Army’s reaction to such an effort.

It is here, Pakistan Army assumes importance. For General Kayani, the Chief of Army Staff in Pakistan, long term interests of Pakistan’s military will be based on keeping the balance of the troika – military, President and Parliament. If the Parliament is to impeach the President, then it would affect the power balance of the troika, which will not be in the interest of Pakistan’s military. Hence, the military assumes importance here, on how it sees Musharraf. Is Musharraf a spent force for Pakistan’s military at this juncture? Is Gen Kayani confident and have the support of his Corps Commanders to take such a decision, now?

The Army, to a large extent, has kept out of politics since the election in Pakistan. With internal political order still being unstable and external security, especially across the Durand line being delicate, General Kayani, will not be in favour of realignment of troika. Not now. Perhaps, he will do in the future, but not now.

Externally, the US also remains cautious to the developments inside Pakistan. Given the statements made by the leading actors in the Bush administration, it is not clear, whether they have an alternative plan to Musharraf, at this juncture. They may ultimately have in the future, but does not seem to be the case now.

Given the above equations, it appears, Musharraf has a breathing space for the time being. Ultimately, he will have to go, but for now, he has some space to manipulate. Given his ability to take radical decisions when pushed to the corner, one should not be surprised, if he comes up with an alternative. For, that is how he has been surviving recently.

The question is, will go with some pride and dignity, or be kicked out?