Whose War is it?
D. Suba Chandran
Deputy Director, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi
An interesting debate is taking place inside Pakistan, especially after that huge attack on Marriott Hotel in Islamabad a week before. The debate centers around the following questions: Why is Pakistan being attacked? How did the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has suddenly become a major threat? And why are the Americans pressurizing Pakistan to more, despite the latter being at the receiving end? In short, the question is: Whose war is it?
Pakistan does have a point. Since the War on Terrorism has started, Pakistan has been at the receiving end. From common man in the streets to the Prime Ministers to the President, there have been numerous suicide attacks in the last few years. While Musharraf and Shaukat Aziz were lucky to escape, Benazir Bhutto was unfortunate to succumb. The entire FATA is infested by violence. Killings, destruction, internal displacement, cross border attacks and aerial strikes have become a regular phenomenon, affecting day to day functioning, in every sphere. The human and material loss for Pakistan has been colossal so far. Worse, this is only a beginning.
When the US has been repeatedly asking Pakistan to do more in curbing terrorism, along with an explicit threat, that they have a right to strike targets within Pakistan territory, the Pakistanis will naturally ask: Why is Pakistan being targeted? Whose War is it?
There is an inherent fear within the country, that the US is using Pakistan and will abandon once again, once the American interests are achieved. It did happen earlier. After the Afghan jihad against the Soviet was over, the US packed its bags from there, leaving Pakistan to manage the residue. So the Pakistanis fear, that once Osama is captured or killed, the US will again leave Afghanistan, is leaving Karzai and Taliban to fend for themselves. Presuming such a scenario, they ask themselves: Why should Pakistan antagonize Taliban today?
Pakistan believes that the US is unlikely to be in Afghanistan for ever. The US has failed to convince Pakistan, that this time, its interests are long term and is unlikely to leave Afghanistan. On the other hand, Pakistan is not that naïve, as some writers in Pakistani media have been portraying. When the US came to this region after the Soviet Union entered Afghanistan, Pakistan played a shrewd game during the entire 1980s and 90s. Pakistan. This was a blowback, that Pakistan did not see coming. When it does, Pakistan now tries to shift the blame and tell the US and perhaps the rest, that its not their war. Its time for introspection and not finger pointing are giving up.
Monday, June 9, 2008
Sunday, June 8, 2008
Exit Musharraf; Enter Zardari
Exit Musharraf; Enter Zardari
D. Suba Chandran
Pervez Musharraf is now history. Asif Zardari is likely to become the next President of Pakistan. Unfortunately, Musharraf’s exit has not solved any problems for Pakistan; in fact it has only raised new issues. With the PPP nominating Zardari as the President, the road ahead for him and his party is only full of challenges.
First major challenge is political instability that has already started. Nawaz Sharif’s PML has decided to walk out of the coalition and decide to stay as opposition. Sharif’s nomination of former Chief Justice - Saeed Zaman Siddiqui, as his party’s candidate for the post of President clearly highlights, that PML-N is completely out of the coalition. Though Zardari has apologized for the rift between the two parties and has requested to withdraw PML-N’s candidate, Sharif has not responded to it positively so far.
Though Zardari has enough numbers in the Parliament to be elected as the President, the rift between the two parties is likely to cause problems at national and provincial levels. Given the challenges Pakistan is facing – political, economic and security, it is important that the leading democratic parties work together. More importantly, numbers in Punjab provincial assembly is likely to pose a major issue. PML-N will need the support of PPP or the PML-Q to govern. Besides, the PPP government at the national level and PML-N government at provincial level, with Zardari as the President are likely to increase the tensions. With the President likely to retain the article 58-2(b), which gives Zardari the power to dismiss the national and provincial assemblies, political stability in Pakistan will be the first major challenge.
Second major challenge is likely to arise from restoring the judiciary and making it independent. While the PML-N has walked out of the coalition, as the PPP has refused to honour the agreements on restoring the judiciary. Zardari fears, restoring Iftikhar Chaudhary as the Chief Justice will restore the latter questioning the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) promulgated by Musharraf, which gave indemnity to Zardari. Besides, the lawyers have also been threatening to re-launch the movement on this issue.
Third major challenge is the ongoing violence in FATA and its spill over into the settled districts of NWFP and beyond. The military is concerned on the growing violence; suicide attacks are wrecking havoc on its personnel and installations. On the other hand, the elected representatives in the NWFP – belonging to the ANP and JUI-F prefer a political statement. A ceasefire has been already announced starting from end August. Given the fact the political ‘peace’ deals of the past have failed, ongoing operations or its failure is likely to test the civil-military relations within.
Finally, there is a huge American pressure to “do more” in terms of Pakistan’s contribution towards Global War on Terrorism (GWOT). The US is upset with the ISI not sharing the information and fears an element within Pakistan’s intelligence agencies are supporting the Taliban.
Will the PPP government and Zardari as President rise to the challenge? The answer has to wait, as the coming months are crucial in getting Pakistan back into democratic mode or slipping into anarchy.
D. Suba Chandran
Pervez Musharraf is now history. Asif Zardari is likely to become the next President of Pakistan. Unfortunately, Musharraf’s exit has not solved any problems for Pakistan; in fact it has only raised new issues. With the PPP nominating Zardari as the President, the road ahead for him and his party is only full of challenges.
First major challenge is political instability that has already started. Nawaz Sharif’s PML has decided to walk out of the coalition and decide to stay as opposition. Sharif’s nomination of former Chief Justice - Saeed Zaman Siddiqui, as his party’s candidate for the post of President clearly highlights, that PML-N is completely out of the coalition. Though Zardari has apologized for the rift between the two parties and has requested to withdraw PML-N’s candidate, Sharif has not responded to it positively so far.
Though Zardari has enough numbers in the Parliament to be elected as the President, the rift between the two parties is likely to cause problems at national and provincial levels. Given the challenges Pakistan is facing – political, economic and security, it is important that the leading democratic parties work together. More importantly, numbers in Punjab provincial assembly is likely to pose a major issue. PML-N will need the support of PPP or the PML-Q to govern. Besides, the PPP government at the national level and PML-N government at provincial level, with Zardari as the President are likely to increase the tensions. With the President likely to retain the article 58-2(b), which gives Zardari the power to dismiss the national and provincial assemblies, political stability in Pakistan will be the first major challenge.
Second major challenge is likely to arise from restoring the judiciary and making it independent. While the PML-N has walked out of the coalition, as the PPP has refused to honour the agreements on restoring the judiciary. Zardari fears, restoring Iftikhar Chaudhary as the Chief Justice will restore the latter questioning the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) promulgated by Musharraf, which gave indemnity to Zardari. Besides, the lawyers have also been threatening to re-launch the movement on this issue.
Third major challenge is the ongoing violence in FATA and its spill over into the settled districts of NWFP and beyond. The military is concerned on the growing violence; suicide attacks are wrecking havoc on its personnel and installations. On the other hand, the elected representatives in the NWFP – belonging to the ANP and JUI-F prefer a political statement. A ceasefire has been already announced starting from end August. Given the fact the political ‘peace’ deals of the past have failed, ongoing operations or its failure is likely to test the civil-military relations within.
Finally, there is a huge American pressure to “do more” in terms of Pakistan’s contribution towards Global War on Terrorism (GWOT). The US is upset with the ISI not sharing the information and fears an element within Pakistan’s intelligence agencies are supporting the Taliban.
Will the PPP government and Zardari as President rise to the challenge? The answer has to wait, as the coming months are crucial in getting Pakistan back into democratic mode or slipping into anarchy.
Friday, June 6, 2008
Peace Deals, Bad Politics
Peace Deals, Bad Politics
D. Suba Chandran
What is happening in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the Federally Administered Tribal Agencies (FATA) of Pakistan? Three related events are taking place, complicating the entire scenario in this region, with five major actors in play, with different objectives and strategies.
The three events are: deadlock and the eventual break up of peace deals between the government of Pakistan and local Taliban; increasing attempts by local Taliban to impose their writ, in terms of establishing Shariah, destroying girls schools and imposing a ban on music; and attacks by US led forces inside Pakistan. Each of them needs to be analysed in detail.
Ever since the civilian governments have been established in Islamabad and Peshawar at national and provincial levels, the PPP and ANP led governments made an effort to negotiate with the local Taliban. A series of peace deals were concluded separately in Swat, Waziristan, Bajaur and other agencies. The main content of these deals focused around local Taliban not using Pakistan’s territory for cross border terrorism and not challenging the write of State inside the tribal regions. On the other hand, these deals expected, that the State would release the prisoners. This is not the first time, there have been deals between the State and the Taliban elements; there were at least three major deals since 2004. All of them failed, because the local Taliban never kept its part of the deal.
Second, local Taliban continue its efforts to establish its influence in the tribal regions. Numerous girls schools have been destroyed in FATA and many number of music shops were attacked and materials burnt. What is important is, this effort of local Taliban is not limited to the tribal regions alone. Slowly, they have been spreading to the settled districts of the NWFP as well.
Third, since Pakistan has failed to stop cross border terrorism, the US led forces in Afghanistan has been regularly carrying out attacks from across the Durand Line. The recent attack on a security post in Mohamand Agency, manned by para military forces was an example of this. This particular attack raised a controversy, as it killed many Pakistani para-military soldiers, besides some locals. Worse, following the above attack, Karzai, the President of Pakistan openly issued a warning, threatening Pakistan of hot pursuit.
The problem in all the above is due to the five actors who are involved: Pakistan, al Qaeda and Taliban, “Pakistani Taliban”, Afghanistan and US led forces. Pakistan is less keen on Taliban and al Qaeda carrying out a bloody conflict in Afghanistan. It is more keen on preventing the local Taliban from carrying out such attacks within Pakistan’s territory. Al Qaeda and Taliban are more keen targeting Afghan and US led security forces; if Pakistan government initiate any effort to curb their activities, they would retaliate even against their former supporters. Local Taliban, on the one hand are supporting al Qadea and Taliban in Afghanistan and on the other hand are attempting to establish their writ in the Tribal regions and adjoining territories. The US security forces and Afghanistan wants to eliminate the threat from Taliba and al Qaeda, so that there could be peace. Given the differences within the above five actors, conflict and violence across the Durand Line is likely to continue.
D. Suba Chandran
What is happening in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the Federally Administered Tribal Agencies (FATA) of Pakistan? Three related events are taking place, complicating the entire scenario in this region, with five major actors in play, with different objectives and strategies.
The three events are: deadlock and the eventual break up of peace deals between the government of Pakistan and local Taliban; increasing attempts by local Taliban to impose their writ, in terms of establishing Shariah, destroying girls schools and imposing a ban on music; and attacks by US led forces inside Pakistan. Each of them needs to be analysed in detail.
Ever since the civilian governments have been established in Islamabad and Peshawar at national and provincial levels, the PPP and ANP led governments made an effort to negotiate with the local Taliban. A series of peace deals were concluded separately in Swat, Waziristan, Bajaur and other agencies. The main content of these deals focused around local Taliban not using Pakistan’s territory for cross border terrorism and not challenging the write of State inside the tribal regions. On the other hand, these deals expected, that the State would release the prisoners. This is not the first time, there have been deals between the State and the Taliban elements; there were at least three major deals since 2004. All of them failed, because the local Taliban never kept its part of the deal.
Second, local Taliban continue its efforts to establish its influence in the tribal regions. Numerous girls schools have been destroyed in FATA and many number of music shops were attacked and materials burnt. What is important is, this effort of local Taliban is not limited to the tribal regions alone. Slowly, they have been spreading to the settled districts of the NWFP as well.
Third, since Pakistan has failed to stop cross border terrorism, the US led forces in Afghanistan has been regularly carrying out attacks from across the Durand Line. The recent attack on a security post in Mohamand Agency, manned by para military forces was an example of this. This particular attack raised a controversy, as it killed many Pakistani para-military soldiers, besides some locals. Worse, following the above attack, Karzai, the President of Pakistan openly issued a warning, threatening Pakistan of hot pursuit.
The problem in all the above is due to the five actors who are involved: Pakistan, al Qaeda and Taliban, “Pakistani Taliban”, Afghanistan and US led forces. Pakistan is less keen on Taliban and al Qaeda carrying out a bloody conflict in Afghanistan. It is more keen on preventing the local Taliban from carrying out such attacks within Pakistan’s territory. Al Qaeda and Taliban are more keen targeting Afghan and US led security forces; if Pakistan government initiate any effort to curb their activities, they would retaliate even against their former supporters. Local Taliban, on the one hand are supporting al Qadea and Taliban in Afghanistan and on the other hand are attempting to establish their writ in the Tribal regions and adjoining territories. The US security forces and Afghanistan wants to eliminate the threat from Taliba and al Qaeda, so that there could be peace. Given the differences within the above five actors, conflict and violence across the Durand Line is likely to continue.
Thursday, June 5, 2008
Musharraf: Has the Count Down Started?
Musharraf: Has the Count Down Started?
D Suba Chandran
Is Musharraf on his way out in Pakistan? Has he become the “relic of the past”, as Asif Ali Zardari, leader of the PPP, commented recently? How much support does this move have within the Army and in the White House? What are the likely implications of an early exit of Musharraf?
Ever since the restoration of judiciary became a political issue, between the coalition partners in Pakistan, serious doubts have been raised on Musharraf continuing as the President. The link between the restoration of judiciary and the continuation of Musharraf is obvious. The restoration of judiciary, as demanded by the PML-N, lawyers and a section within the civil society, means reinstatement of Iftikhar Choudhary as the Chief Justice, besides scrapping down numerous measures taken by Musharraf towards clipping the powers of Pakistan’s judiciary.
The personal animosity between Musharraf and Iftikhar Choudhary is well known. The general expectation within Pakistan has been that, once Iftikhar Choudhary is back as the Chief Justice and the judiciary is restored, the first order of business will be to look into the election of Musharraf as the President. The case on the election of Musharraf as the President, is unlikely to stand legal arguments against him. In all probabilities, if this case is taken by the Supreme Court, it is highly likely, that the verdict will go against Musharraf. In that case, he will not have any other option, other than resigning.
However, the question of Musharraf’s continuation is more political than legal. If the leading political parties of Pakistan, decide to impeach the President, through legal procedures and powers vested in the Parliament, then such a process is likely to succeed, as PPP-PML-N combination have adequate strength.
Will the Parliament initiate such a process? Unlikely. For various reasons. One, the PPP, is not in favour of the impeachment, though the PML-N has been asking for it. PML-N on its own, or along with other parties (minus the PPP), will not be able to mobilize adequate support to impeach Musharraf. So much would depend on PPP’s position on Musharraf. Two, the Parliament, would rather prefer the judiciary to do this job, instead of doing on its own. Three, PPP will also be wary of Army’s reaction to such an effort.
It is here, Pakistan Army assumes importance. For General Kayani, the Chief of Army Staff in Pakistan, long term interests of Pakistan’s military will be based on keeping the balance of the troika – military, President and Parliament. If the Parliament is to impeach the President, then it would affect the power balance of the troika, which will not be in the interest of Pakistan’s military. Hence, the military assumes importance here, on how it sees Musharraf. Is Musharraf a spent force for Pakistan’s military at this juncture? Is Gen Kayani confident and have the support of his Corps Commanders to take such a decision, now?
The Army, to a large extent, has kept out of politics since the election in Pakistan. With internal political order still being unstable and external security, especially across the Durand line being delicate, General Kayani, will not be in favour of realignment of troika. Not now. Perhaps, he will do in the future, but not now.
Externally, the US also remains cautious to the developments inside Pakistan. Given the statements made by the leading actors in the Bush administration, it is not clear, whether they have an alternative plan to Musharraf, at this juncture. They may ultimately have in the future, but does not seem to be the case now.
Given the above equations, it appears, Musharraf has a breathing space for the time being. Ultimately, he will have to go, but for now, he has some space to manipulate. Given his ability to take radical decisions when pushed to the corner, one should not be surprised, if he comes up with an alternative. For, that is how he has been surviving recently.
The question is, will go with some pride and dignity, or be kicked out?
D Suba Chandran
Is Musharraf on his way out in Pakistan? Has he become the “relic of the past”, as Asif Ali Zardari, leader of the PPP, commented recently? How much support does this move have within the Army and in the White House? What are the likely implications of an early exit of Musharraf?
Ever since the restoration of judiciary became a political issue, between the coalition partners in Pakistan, serious doubts have been raised on Musharraf continuing as the President. The link between the restoration of judiciary and the continuation of Musharraf is obvious. The restoration of judiciary, as demanded by the PML-N, lawyers and a section within the civil society, means reinstatement of Iftikhar Choudhary as the Chief Justice, besides scrapping down numerous measures taken by Musharraf towards clipping the powers of Pakistan’s judiciary.
The personal animosity between Musharraf and Iftikhar Choudhary is well known. The general expectation within Pakistan has been that, once Iftikhar Choudhary is back as the Chief Justice and the judiciary is restored, the first order of business will be to look into the election of Musharraf as the President. The case on the election of Musharraf as the President, is unlikely to stand legal arguments against him. In all probabilities, if this case is taken by the Supreme Court, it is highly likely, that the verdict will go against Musharraf. In that case, he will not have any other option, other than resigning.
However, the question of Musharraf’s continuation is more political than legal. If the leading political parties of Pakistan, decide to impeach the President, through legal procedures and powers vested in the Parliament, then such a process is likely to succeed, as PPP-PML-N combination have adequate strength.
Will the Parliament initiate such a process? Unlikely. For various reasons. One, the PPP, is not in favour of the impeachment, though the PML-N has been asking for it. PML-N on its own, or along with other parties (minus the PPP), will not be able to mobilize adequate support to impeach Musharraf. So much would depend on PPP’s position on Musharraf. Two, the Parliament, would rather prefer the judiciary to do this job, instead of doing on its own. Three, PPP will also be wary of Army’s reaction to such an effort.
It is here, Pakistan Army assumes importance. For General Kayani, the Chief of Army Staff in Pakistan, long term interests of Pakistan’s military will be based on keeping the balance of the troika – military, President and Parliament. If the Parliament is to impeach the President, then it would affect the power balance of the troika, which will not be in the interest of Pakistan’s military. Hence, the military assumes importance here, on how it sees Musharraf. Is Musharraf a spent force for Pakistan’s military at this juncture? Is Gen Kayani confident and have the support of his Corps Commanders to take such a decision, now?
The Army, to a large extent, has kept out of politics since the election in Pakistan. With internal political order still being unstable and external security, especially across the Durand line being delicate, General Kayani, will not be in favour of realignment of troika. Not now. Perhaps, he will do in the future, but not now.
Externally, the US also remains cautious to the developments inside Pakistan. Given the statements made by the leading actors in the Bush administration, it is not clear, whether they have an alternative plan to Musharraf, at this juncture. They may ultimately have in the future, but does not seem to be the case now.
Given the above equations, it appears, Musharraf has a breathing space for the time being. Ultimately, he will have to go, but for now, he has some space to manipulate. Given his ability to take radical decisions when pushed to the corner, one should not be surprised, if he comes up with an alternative. For, that is how he has been surviving recently.
The question is, will go with some pride and dignity, or be kicked out?
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Cross-LoC Tourism
Cross-LoC Tourism
D. Suba Chandran
During his recent visit to J&K, Jairam Ramesh, Union Minister of State for Commerce announced in March, that trade across the LoC will start in 90 days. In the same month, Ghulam Nabi Azad, the Chief Minister of J&K, during his speech in Poonch, announced that Poonch-Rawlakot road will become a major trade route across the LoC between the two Kashmirs. Almost two months have passed since these two statements. The ground reality today is, despite brave statements from the Union and State governments, is not encouraging.
There are serious legal and political hurdles in achieving any meaningful trade across the LoC. The legal issue include providing some sanctity to the LoC, if the goods have to cross from one part of the Kashmir to the other. Pakistan fears, this will lead to a tacit acceptance of the LoC as a permanent border. Second, even if the trade begins, given the experience elsewhere inside South Asia, the basket of goods, is likely to be small, resulting only in a trickle. Finally, given the current level of understanding, the trade is likely to be only between the two Kashmirs and not beyond.
Given the above limitation on cross-LoC trade, there is an effort to look beyond, in order to improve the cross-LoC interactions. Tourism is one area, which has enormous potential on this issue, where the legal and political aspects can be underplayed. Today, the two bus services across Uri and Poonch, carry divided families on a regular basis, without much compromises on legal and political issues related to travel. In promoting tourism between the two countries also, the same arrangement can be pursued in facilitating travel.
Besides the less legal and political issues associated with, cross-LoC tourism has enormous potential to improve the relations between the two Kashmirs. Historically, ever since the 1947 War, Hindu and Sikh communities have migrated to J&K, leaving their ancestral home, which is now under Pakistan’s administration. This community, now settled all over the Jammu region, is extremely anxious to visit the other side. Unfortunately, since this section does not have a divided member on the other side, they could make use of the two existing bus services, which is limited only to the divided families. While the divided families of Muslim community could visit each other and make use of the bus, Hindu and Sikh communities, who have also been displaced after 1947, have been denied this opportunity. It is only fair, that these two communities also are included in the cross-LoC interactions; tourism across the LoC, provide an opportunity.
Second, people of Ladakh, Kargil, Skardu and Gilgit have also been denied this opportunity to cross the LoC. There are numerous families in this belt, which are also divided. People in this region have been claiming for the opening of Kargil-Skardu road. Cross-LoC tourism, will address the aspirations of people in this region, who geographically are the biggest inside J&K.
Third, cross-LoC tourism will improve the understanding of each other – the good will, fears, sentiments and sensitivities. The current interaction is narrowly based on divided families, where emotions run high, undermining political and security sensitivities of the people and State. Cross-LoC tourism will address larger issues and enable people on both sides to understand better.
Fourth, economically, cross-LoC tourism will boost all the regions. From Poonch to Gilgit, there are numerous places of historical, adventure and religious importance that will attract everyone from all parts of Kashmir. Places of worship belonging to Hindu, Muslim, Sikh and Buddhist communities are spread all over J&K and are not limited to one region. In fact, a Buddhist from Ladakh would love to go up to even Swat and beyond; a Pandit would like to visit the Sharada Peeth in Kishan Ganga Valley; and a Muslim would like to visit Hazratbal and Shahadra Sharief. On historical and other significances, Gulmarg, Dal Lake, Ladakh and Jammu would enthral people from the other side, so would be Gilgit, Skardu and Mirpur for people from J&K. Historically, there are numerous places, from ancient era until today that would attract people to visit each other.
Such a movement for religious, adventure and historical reasons is likely to improve the economic activities on both sides tremendously. From having small dhabas to constructing huge hotels, the economic benefits of cross-LoC tourism will have its own dynamics on political issues.
For the above reasons, New Delhi should take up this issue in the forthcoming meeting with Pakistan at the ministerial and foreign secretaries level, in May. Obviously, there are security implications of such a movement. Here, to start with, India could consider the Chinese model, in allowing tourism in Tibet. It encouraged group tourism in the beginning instead of individuals. India and Pakistan can also adopt such a strategy to begin with: group tourism for religious, historical and adventure purposes. Once the confidence level increases, both countries could relax this further and open it for every one. Once this process is set in motion, both countries could even think about attracting international tourists with a joint package. Imagine a trip from Europe or US to New Delhi-Srinagar/Leh-Kargil-Skardu-Gilgit-Islamabad and back!
D. Suba Chandran
During his recent visit to J&K, Jairam Ramesh, Union Minister of State for Commerce announced in March, that trade across the LoC will start in 90 days. In the same month, Ghulam Nabi Azad, the Chief Minister of J&K, during his speech in Poonch, announced that Poonch-Rawlakot road will become a major trade route across the LoC between the two Kashmirs. Almost two months have passed since these two statements. The ground reality today is, despite brave statements from the Union and State governments, is not encouraging.
There are serious legal and political hurdles in achieving any meaningful trade across the LoC. The legal issue include providing some sanctity to the LoC, if the goods have to cross from one part of the Kashmir to the other. Pakistan fears, this will lead to a tacit acceptance of the LoC as a permanent border. Second, even if the trade begins, given the experience elsewhere inside South Asia, the basket of goods, is likely to be small, resulting only in a trickle. Finally, given the current level of understanding, the trade is likely to be only between the two Kashmirs and not beyond.
Given the above limitation on cross-LoC trade, there is an effort to look beyond, in order to improve the cross-LoC interactions. Tourism is one area, which has enormous potential on this issue, where the legal and political aspects can be underplayed. Today, the two bus services across Uri and Poonch, carry divided families on a regular basis, without much compromises on legal and political issues related to travel. In promoting tourism between the two countries also, the same arrangement can be pursued in facilitating travel.
Besides the less legal and political issues associated with, cross-LoC tourism has enormous potential to improve the relations between the two Kashmirs. Historically, ever since the 1947 War, Hindu and Sikh communities have migrated to J&K, leaving their ancestral home, which is now under Pakistan’s administration. This community, now settled all over the Jammu region, is extremely anxious to visit the other side. Unfortunately, since this section does not have a divided member on the other side, they could make use of the two existing bus services, which is limited only to the divided families. While the divided families of Muslim community could visit each other and make use of the bus, Hindu and Sikh communities, who have also been displaced after 1947, have been denied this opportunity. It is only fair, that these two communities also are included in the cross-LoC interactions; tourism across the LoC, provide an opportunity.
Second, people of Ladakh, Kargil, Skardu and Gilgit have also been denied this opportunity to cross the LoC. There are numerous families in this belt, which are also divided. People in this region have been claiming for the opening of Kargil-Skardu road. Cross-LoC tourism, will address the aspirations of people in this region, who geographically are the biggest inside J&K.
Third, cross-LoC tourism will improve the understanding of each other – the good will, fears, sentiments and sensitivities. The current interaction is narrowly based on divided families, where emotions run high, undermining political and security sensitivities of the people and State. Cross-LoC tourism will address larger issues and enable people on both sides to understand better.
Fourth, economically, cross-LoC tourism will boost all the regions. From Poonch to Gilgit, there are numerous places of historical, adventure and religious importance that will attract everyone from all parts of Kashmir. Places of worship belonging to Hindu, Muslim, Sikh and Buddhist communities are spread all over J&K and are not limited to one region. In fact, a Buddhist from Ladakh would love to go up to even Swat and beyond; a Pandit would like to visit the Sharada Peeth in Kishan Ganga Valley; and a Muslim would like to visit Hazratbal and Shahadra Sharief. On historical and other significances, Gulmarg, Dal Lake, Ladakh and Jammu would enthral people from the other side, so would be Gilgit, Skardu and Mirpur for people from J&K. Historically, there are numerous places, from ancient era until today that would attract people to visit each other.
Such a movement for religious, adventure and historical reasons is likely to improve the economic activities on both sides tremendously. From having small dhabas to constructing huge hotels, the economic benefits of cross-LoC tourism will have its own dynamics on political issues.
For the above reasons, New Delhi should take up this issue in the forthcoming meeting with Pakistan at the ministerial and foreign secretaries level, in May. Obviously, there are security implications of such a movement. Here, to start with, India could consider the Chinese model, in allowing tourism in Tibet. It encouraged group tourism in the beginning instead of individuals. India and Pakistan can also adopt such a strategy to begin with: group tourism for religious, historical and adventure purposes. Once the confidence level increases, both countries could relax this further and open it for every one. Once this process is set in motion, both countries could even think about attracting international tourists with a joint package. Imagine a trip from Europe or US to New Delhi-Srinagar/Leh-Kargil-Skardu-Gilgit-Islamabad and back!
Friday, June 8, 2007
J&K as Land of Contact-Broadening Cross-LoC Interactions
J&K as Land of Contact
Broadening Cross-LoC Interactions
D Suba Chandran
Visiting Fellow, Center for Strategic and Regional Studies, University of Jammu
&
Assistant Director, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi
In July 2007, after meeting with Syed Asif Shah, Pakistan’s Commerce Secretary in New Delhi, Jairam Ramesh, India’s Minister for State and Commerce, announced Pakistan had agreed in principle to allow trade through the Line of Control (LoC). Two years after starting a bus service between Muzaffarabad and Srinagar, allowing divided families to meet, steps are being contemplated, for improving cross-LoC interactions further. The pace is painfully slow, but given the hostilities, vested interests and hardened mindsets, enlarging the interactions across the LoC, certainly is a welcome development.
While numerous proposals have been made by both sides on resolving the conflict in J&K, some of the recent ones, such as that of making borders irrelevant, have caught the imagination on both sides. The final resolution can take time and obviously will involve tortuous negotiations among all sides concerned, so that the final understanding is acceptable to India, Pakistan and all parts of Jammu and Kashmir. Until then, what is essential is to open up the border and LoC and allow the movement of people and goods. This could be a parallel process, feeding into the main negotiations, by providing inputs, reservations and possibilities. Who knows, such interactions may break the mindsets and vested interests and allow for a larger constituency working towards peace. Though the cynics may question its achievements, the fact is that the peace process, in place since October 2003, has created a peace constituency in India, Pakistan and J&K. There is no going back, for all actors have taken major steps forward and are willing to move beyond their stated positions.
How can this process be taken forward? What are the opportunities? What steps have been taken so far and how can they be broadened further? Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, recently said in Jammu, “there can no be question of divisions or fresh partitions, but the Line of Control can become a line of peace.” How can the LoC be made the Line of Peace?
Learning from History
If one takes an aerial view of all the three regions of J&K, five major roads could be identified, as if they are five fingers reaching out – Jammu-Sialkot, Rawlakot-Poonch, Uri-Muzafarabad, Kargil-Skardu and Leh-Manasarovar. A casual look at history will also reveal that these five fingers acted as five specific routes, known for their historical and cultural contacts with outside regions – Central Asia, Xinjiang (Sinkiang) and Tibet. The fact that a section of the famous Silk Route, ran through this region, only highlights the historical, economic and cultural significance of these various routes.
Elders in Kashmir Valley often refer to the Muzafarabad-Rawalpindi road before 1947, which was an all-weather road that gave the common man, including the trader the opportunity to reach out to the outside world, all through the year. Similarly, the people of Jammu region talk about opening the Jammu-Sialkot road; the fact that during the pre-1947 period, the Jammu-New Delhi train service ran through Sialkot and Lahore will highlight the historical connections between Jammu and the Punjab. It is also needless to belabour the significance of linkages between Rajouri and Poonch with Mirpur, Kotli and Muzaffarabad, for since time immemorial, these five regions were one on every count – economic, political and cultural. Any study of the Silk Route will highlight the linkages between Leh and Kargil regions with Tibet, Skardu, Gilgit and Central Asia.
All that needs to be done is to learn from history and reestablish the cultural and economic contacts along these five roads. Political issues can take their own pace, for politically these regions have never been homogenous; only in recent history and especially after the British came to the subcontinent, have there been political realignments. But, the economic and cultural contacts among these various regions of J&K are as old as history itself.
Opening these five roads will totally change the nature of present of interactions between the various communities of these regions that include Jammu, Mirpur, Muzaffarabad, Kashmir, Gilgit, Baltistan and Ladakh and in the process, provide positive inputs to the Indo-Pak peace process.
Route 1: Jammu-Sialkot
It is extremely unfortunate most of the discussions on cross-LoC interactions have been focused only on the divided families and that too in Rajouri, Poonch, Uri and Baramulla districts. Whether in terms of economy, divided families or history, the linkages of Jammu with its neighbouring regions – Punjab, Mirpur and Muzaffarabad cannot be ignored. The Jammu-Sialkot links – both road and rail – in particular have great significance.
The Jammu-Sialkot road, before 1947 was the primary link for the people of this region with the outside world and the railway line from Lahore to Jammu, ended in the heart of Jammu city. Along with Rajouri, Poonch, Uri and Baramulla, Jammu too, has a sizeable number of divided families.
While the first bus service caters to the divided families in Kashmir Valley, mainly in the districts of Uri and Srinagar, the second bus service cater to the meeting of families primarily in Rajouri and Poonch districts. What has been forgotten or been under-emphasized is that there are divided families in Jammu district as well. From Jammu city, all the way up to Sialkot – hardly 40kms away – including RS Pora and Suchetgarh, there are numerous families that are divided ones.
Opening of this road is important for several reasons. First, it will expand the points of interactions along the LoC/international border (IB) and will enlarge the constituencies that get benefited out of increasing cross-LoC interactions . As mentioned above, current interactions are confined to five or six districts of entire Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh. Consider the fact that the road between the two Kashmirs in the Valley was opened in 2005, followed by the next road in the Poonch district in 2006. Other roads should have been opened subsequently; opening of the Jammu-Sialkot road will address this imbalance.
Besides the issue of divided families, Jammu has been culturally linked with Sialkot region. Balraj Puri remembers how people of his generation during their younger days, used to visit Sialkot and how people from those areas visited Jammu to take a dip in the canal waters of Jammu. The Baba Chamiliyal mela, celebrated along the border every year, highlights the cultural linkages between the two sides in this region. Every year, people from the other side of the border throng the border to receive soil and sharbath from the Baba’s shrine in Chamliyal village.
Economic benefits of opening this road are also immense. If Kashmir region is known for its horticulture and handicrafts industry, the manufacturing sector in Jammu has grown considerably in recent years. From Lakhanpur to Bari Brahmana, this entire belt has become an important economic region for manufactured goods. From tea to tyres, Jammu could send its goods through the Sialkot route much faster.
Annil Suri, President of the Bari Brahmana Industries Association says, “Mirpur is only five hours from Jammu. Sialkot, once upon a time was the mandi. From life-saving drugs to steel, there is so much that Jammu could trade across.” He also feels that this will help the J&K industry to increase its annual turnover by at least 50 percent. Today, the turnover in organized sector alone is around Rs.100,000 crores. With Pakistan planning to six-lane the Sialkot-Lahore road, this means goods from Jammu could reach the heart of Pakistan’s Punjab in four to five hours – much faster than newspapers from Jammu reach Poonch or Kishtwar.
In addition, opening this route will also complement the economies of the two regions – Jammu and Kashmir. While handicrafts and horticultural products are likely to dominate the cross-LoC trade in the Valley, manufactured items will dominate cross-LoC/IB trade from Jammu.
Besides, the Jammu region could also trade through two other routes – Nowshera-Mirpur/Kotli and Poonch-Rawlakot. In this connection, opening another point of interaction in the Jammu region is also essential. Yuvraj Gupta, who crossed the LoC in 1947, when he was ten years old, feels that in this region, most divided families are from Mirpur and Kotli regions, and hence opening this route will benefit them.
And a Chenab Express?
As mentioned above, before 1947 there was a train service from Jammu to Sialkot. People who had to get to New Delhi, took this train that passed through Sialkot and Lahore. Elders in the city even today remember the old railway station in Jammu. Consider what is happening along the international border in the Gujarat-Sind region. There is a ‘Thar Express’ between Munabao and Kokhrapar addressing the concerns of this region, and a ‘Samjhauta Express’ between Wagah and Atari, addressing the concerns of the rest in North India.
If the above-mentioned regions can have train services, why not have a ‘Chenab Express’ between Jammu and Sialkot? Whether this section is considered as LoC or as part of the international border by India and Pakistan, there is no justification for not opening this route for both the international border and LoC have been opened elsewhere. Why not in Jammu then?
Route 2: Poonch-Rawlakot
This route was opened in 2006 for divided families and the fact that there are numerous such families in this region, resulted in this route becoming a big hit. In terms of numbers, crossings across the Chakan-da-Bagh are huge when compared to the Aman Setu.
A beginning has been made, but this needs to be consolidated and expanded further. As shall be seen subsequently, the Kashmir Valley has adequate goods, which could be exported successfully across the LoC. Unfortunately, there is not much that could be traded from the Rajour-Poonch region to the other side. Nevertheless, this region has great tourist potential. The shrine of Baba Ghulam Shah and the Chingus fort, both near Rajouri are of great religious and historical significance. Besides, this region could become an important hub for educational activities. In Rajouri, a technical University in the name of Baba Ghulam Shah has already been established, with several courses, including MBA and MCA.
More importantly, so far, cross-LoC interactions through this route are limited to only the divided families, who have gone from here to the other side. Likewise, numerous families, belonging to the Hindu and Sikh communities came from the other side to this part of Kashmir and are settled all over the Jammu region. Unfortunately, these people do not have families on the other side of the LoC, but they would still like to visit their former homes. Who can resist the temptation of visiting their place of birth? Especially in this region, where there is always an emotional attachment to the “motherland” irrespective of the community in which one is born?
Says, Sabir Afaqi, a poet, who recently visited Jammu from across, and who has his relatives on this side, “every one who visits from that side to this side, would like to carry some soil back. So would those who migrated from there, if they are allowed to.” In fact, while talking about there not being adequate goods from these region to trade across, if anyone were allowed to sell soil across the LoC packaged as “Rajouri soil,” “Kotli soil,” etc., he is sure to make a fortune by doing so. So intense is the emotional attachment to visit the place of birth.
Route 3: Uri-Muzaffarabad
Undoubtedly, the opening of this road in 2005, followed by the Poonch-Rawlakot road in 2006, was the biggest Confidence Building Measure (CBM) between India and Pakistan in the recent years, relating to Jammu and Kashmir. When the first bus rolled across the LoC on 7 April 2005, many elders living away from the main road, walked all the way, just to have a glimpse of the bus. On being asked why she came to Baramulla to see this first bus, an old lady replied with tears in her eyes, “I don’t know. I just wanted to see. And I felt much younger when I saw the bus finally.”
Now more than two years later, what is the status of this bus service and how do the locals in these areas perceive this bus service? Mehraj, hailing from Sopore and a lecturer in a government college says, “The bus service is good but provides very limited relief. It only addresses the divided families.” Masood, a student in Kashmir University, whose family is engaged in apple cultivation in Anantnag feels that the opening of this road will have any real meaning only of it is opened for trade. Says Bashir Mir, Human Aid Society in Baramulla, “now the only link for us is through the Banihal pass, which is prone to landslides. For people like us from the border districts of Baramulla, Rawalpindi is closer and is approachable all through the year.”
Therein lies the problem with this road. As of now, this road is opened only for divided families. The fact that there are more divided families in Rajouri-Poonch-Mirpur region and not many in Kashmir Valley is underlined by the limited number of people that the cross the LoC today via the Aman Setu. Unless this road is opened for trade and travel for more than just divided families, it does not make much sense.
The economic argument for opening the Uri-Muzaffarabad road is strong. The Kashmir Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) has been spearheading this effort relentlessly ever since both countries decided to open the LoC. Right from the memorandum presented to the Prime Minister two years back to the recent appeal relating to the list of items that could be traded along the LoC, the KCCI has been spearheading an independent initiative to open the LoC for trade. (See interview with Abdul Hamid Punjabi, Secretary-General of KCCI).
From carpets to fruits (especially apples, almonds and walnuts), and shawls to wooden furniture, there is so much that Kashmir Valley could send to the other side, if the road is opened for trade. The apple industry in particular will benefit immensely from opening the LoC for trade. Today, the apple growers all over Kashmir Valley send their products, only through the Jawahar tunnel by trucks to Jammu, New Delhi and then beyond, Says the President of Apple Association in Sopore, “this road is unstable and unpredictable. If it is closed, due to landslides or other related natural causes, the apples are stuck inside.” Agrees another apple grower from Sophian, “given the problems related to transportation and packaging, the apple industry is already facing a serious crisis. If alternatives are not found, this industry will die slowly.”
Larger economic and security issues related to the horticultural industry in Kashmir Valley will underline the opening of LoC for trade. This does not mean, other items including carpets, shawls and wooden furniture should be given less importance in considering the cross-LoC trade. Given the fact that nearly 70 percent of the population is dependent on horticulture and that the fruits are perishable items, the long-term implications of not exploring alternative roads will greatly affect this industry.
Imagine, if this road is opened for trade, apples from Anantnag and Sopore could reach Rawalpindi via Muzaffarabad faster than they could reach New Delhi. And they could also reach other cities of Pakistan such as Lahore and Karachi. Some of the fruit owners believe that they can even send their apples to China and Central Asia through these cities.
M A Sofi, whose family is engaged in this business considers such an effort to reach out to outside markets quickly will also improve the standard of apples being produced in Kashmir Valley (See interview) Once the Kashmiri apples are in the international market competing with those from the US and New Zealand, this will automatically lead to investing more in better technology from production to packaging. In simple words, it would revolutionize the apple industry, the main source of livelihood in Kashmir Valley.
Opening of this route for goods will also broaden the peace constituency inside Kashmir Valley, which will have larger political implications for cross-LoC interactions between the two Kashmirs and Indo-Pak relations. Opening this road for trade will directly benefit more than 80 percent of the population in the Valley, whose livelihood depends on horticulture and handicrafts.
Besides trade, tourism is another important sector in the Kashmir Valley. Besides the immediate economic gains to the struggling tourist industry, it will also help other industries such as the handicrafts and horticulture. Besides divided families, numerous others in Mirpur, Muzaffarabad, Gilgit and Baltistan regions, would love to visit the Valley and Jammu. Is there a soul in this region who cannot be tempted to take a drive along and a boat ride in the Dal Lake? Or to visit Gulmarg or journey to some of the most revered shrines such as the Charar-e-Sharif?
Such movement, besides supporting the tourist industry which has been hit by the violence, will also create new places of interest. From new dhabas to restaurants all along the road from Uri, movement of tourists could create new economic opportunities in Kashmir Valley.
Politically, it would also allow both sets of Kashmirs to appreciate the levels of political freedom, governance and security issues on the other side. Everyone agrees that there is propaganda unleashed by many vested interests. Let the Kashmiris across the LoC visit each other and see for themselves, where lies the truth. Certainly, New Delhi has nothing to lose in initiating such interactions at popular, economic and political levels. In fact, New Delhi has much to gain; it has only to liberate itself from the cocoon it has elaborately woven and has hidden inside with a negative mentality.
Consider also the political impact such an opening will create inside Valley. Will it not break entrenched mindsets? Such a move will reduce the hold of hardliners, extremists and militants over society. Both Syed Ali Geelani and Syed Salahudin are openly against any cross-LoC interactions. So are the militants – whether they are Kashmiri or Pakistani. The fact that the tourist reception center in Srinagar was targeted and burnt down on the eve of the inaugural service of the bus between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad underlines how hostile the extremists are to cross-LoC interactions.
Economic movement along the LoC, certainly will break the hold of such hawks over local society. Any anti-economy fatwas will then be repulsed and rejected for daily livelihood is ultimately more important than outdated political rhetoric.
If the benefits are so huge, why the delay in opening this road for trade? Rauf Punjabi, former President of the KCCI says, “opening the LoC for trade should have been next obvious step. Unfortunately, the delay is inordinate. The mindsets need to be broken.” The local community feels that India and Pakistan should take bolder steps to increase the interactions and also involve Kashmiris in such interactions. For example, from the apple and tourist associations to the KCCI, none were invited by the Working Group constituted on this issue by Manmohan Singh. What stops New Delhi from sending a delegation to the other side of Kashmir and subsequently inviting the trade chambers in Muzaffarabad here?
Route 4: Kargil-Skardu
As in the case of the Jammu-Sialkot road and the divided families in Jammu, the Kargil-Skardu road and the divided families of this region too have not been adequately focused on while discussing cross-LoC interactions.
The LoC not only divided the Pahris in Rajouri and Poonch and the Kashmiris in the Valley, but has also divided the Baltis in Kargil and Skardu regions. There are hundreds of divided families in Kargil, Batalik and Turtuk regions, who would love to visit the other side and see their relatives. While the voices of the divided families in Kashmir Valley and Jammu region are heard, thanks to the print and electronic media, it is unfortunate, that these regions hardly get noticed. Obviously it is not easy for a journalist or a researcher to reach these regions, stay there and interact with these divided families, for the road to these regions both from Srinagar and Leh are treacherous.
As a result, the divided families of these regions do not have an adequate voice. How many outside J&K, or for that matter even inside the State know that there are divided families here? In a way, the Kargil War in 1999 was a blessing in disguise as the region suddenly came into the limelight and became internationally known. But for the divided families, the story remains the same. Perhaps, they are waiting to be discovered.
Numerous arguments have been made about how much it costs to travel from Muzaffarabad and Mirpur to Baramulla or Jammu. Imagine how much time and cost it would take for someone from Skardu to visit Kargil. The available route for someone from Skardu is through Gilgit, Islamabad and then to New Delhi, Jammu, Srinagar and finally Kargil. One could easily go around the world and return to the starting point, by the time someone starts from Skardu and reaches Kargil, which are separated by only about 130kms; if the road is opened from Kargil to Skardu, it would take just five to six hours.
People of this region – from Leh to Gilgit, believe that they are distinct, historically and politically. Ismail Khan, an eminent writer from the Northern Areas wrote recently that the conflict and violence witnessed in Kashmir had nothing to do with the people of this region. He wrote, “The fact is that neither Ladakh nor the Gilgit-Baltistan are ‘Kashmiri’. The locals do not eat, dress or speak like the Kashmiri, and have much more in common with each other in every way in terms of culture and sensibility than with Srinagar valley or Azad Kashmir. The people of Ladakh and Gilgit-Balitistan have been dragged unwillingly into the Kashmir conflict, the major continuous flashpoint of South Asia, simply because a confluence of geography and history brought them under the state of Jammu and Kashmir.”
So the general question asked here is, why should the people and divided families in the Northern Areas and Kargil suffer for a conflict that has nothing to do with them? One main reason for this question clearly is due to the fact that they feel alienated by and unrepresented in the discussions that are being held between India and Pakistan on J&K. When was the last time, that there was a discussion in New Delhi or in Islamabad, saying that the people of Leh-Kargil-Skardu-Gilgit region should also be taken into account?
Such reservations are bound to arise. Consider the geographical extent of this region – Ladakh and Northern Areas comprise two thirds of the entire J&K territory! This is why opening Kargil-Skardu road becomes important. It would not only address the divided families of this region, but also help set right the lopsided nature of cross-LoC interactions.
Also, historically from times immemorial, these regions from Leh to Gilgit were interconnected economically, politically and culturally. Until 1947, trade and the movement of people took place continuously from Tibet to Central Asia through Leh, Kargil, Skardu and Gilgit. (See the article “Once upon a time along the Silk Route”). Traders, caravans, people and religions moved along the Silk Route.
Opening this route, in fact should be seen in conjunction with the opening of another important route in this area – the Leh-Mansarovar route, which also has historical and religious significance.
Route 5: Leh-Manasarovar
While the other four routes discussed above are along the international border and LoC between India and Pakistan, the Leh-Mansarovar route lies across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) between India and China.
Unlike the other routes, there are not many divided families across the LAC in this region. However, opening this route is important for historical reasons. As mentioned above, the Silk Route was the only outlet for the people of Ladakh, until the Zoji La and Leh-Manali roads were opened for regular traffic in the recent years.
Economically, the local population will greatly benefit out of this route, mainly through tourism. Kailash Mansarovar, one of the most revered Hindu pilgrim destinations, is only about 300kms from Demchok on the LAC. The road up to Demchok is well-laid and much of the road from there to Mansarovar, which is under the Chinese control is also motorable.
Opening this route, will greatly benefit the local population in the Leh region, which is primarily dependent on tourism for its survival. Consider the fact, that the Zoji La is closed for six months in a year and the road from Leh to Srinagar via Kargil is one of the most dangerous, in this entire region.
Along with the peace process with Pakistan, India is also engaged in talks to resolve the boundary dispute with China. Further it was not until 2003 that China accepted Sikkim as a part of India. However, with Nathu La in Sikkim being opened for border trade between the India and China in July 2006, a similar arrangement could be reached with respect to Demchok also this time for pilgrim traffic. Jabin Jacob, of the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS), New Delhi says, “Despite the border dispute, given China’s interest in quickening the pace of economic developing in its western provinces, there is no reason to believe that it would be particularly averse to opening this route. The returns from tourism generated in the process could be enormous for both Ladakh and Tibet. In fact, the opening of this route might even provide added incentive for breakthroughs in other areas of the border negotiations.”
From the perspectives of the entire region of J&K, opening the Leh-Manasarovar and Kargil-Skardu roads are important. In short, reviving the Silk Route is an absolute priority that will revolutionize these regions starting from Demchok to Sust (between the Northern Areas and Xinjiang along the Karakoram Highway). Skardu is already well-linked with Gilgit, which is situated strategically along the Karakoram Highway. From Gilgit, one could reach Xinjiang and Central Asia turning northwards or Karachi and Gwadar ports by turning south..
There is already a bus service between Gilgit and Kashgar in Xinjiang and General Musharraf recently announced that Pakistan and China were planning to build a railway and pipeline along the Highway. He declared that project when completed would be one of the new wonders of the world. With China already constructing a railway line to Lhasa connecting Tibet with rest of China all the way up to Beijing, such a railway line along the Karakoram Highway is no longer unthinkable. Such a line could also join up with the already existing rail network between Beijing and Central Asia, vial Urumqi the Xinjiang capital. China has also been investing heavily in energy in Central Asia and has been laying a network of gas pipelines as well.
Reviving the Silk Route, in this region, will provide Leh and Kargil access to this most vital and strategic confluence of roads, railways, and pipelines. In turn, this has the potential to transform this entire region, which is linked at present, to the outside world only thorough two routes, both of which are closed for half of the year. This revived Silk Route would renew the meeting of peoples and civilizations that have occurred from time immemorial.
The Roads Ahead
For long India has been on the defensive in and on J&K. Whatever be the issue – militarization and demilitarization, self-rule, autonomy or human rights – there has been an onslaught at the international level against India’s position by Pakistan and a section led by the Hurriyat inside Kashmir Valley. The 1990s were witness to this trend; the upsurge in insurgency during the late 1980s and early 1990s, the initial failures and problems of counter-insurgency, political demands from Kashmir Valley, issues of human rights and international pressure – all of them placed India in a defensive position.
The LoC, so far has been primarily perceived as a line dividing the two Kashmirs. In particular, the Indian state has been attempting to convert this LoC into a permanent border, thereby closing its links with the other side forever. Though not stated publicly, the perception that India would settle for converting the LoC into the international border is also a part of India’s defensive approach. It is time for New Delhi to re-imagine the LoC as a Line of Contact.
To broaden the scope even further, the entire region of J&K, including Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh needs to be placed within a larger paradigm and perceived as a land of contact with three regions – Tibet in the east, Xinjiang in the north, Pakistan in the west and Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia in the northwest. Opening the above routes would then become a part of a coherent strategy. Such an expansion – economic, cultural and strategic – whether it takes place by 2010 or by 2015, requires New Delhi start preparing for such an eventuality. As a part of this process, efforts should also be made to link the various regions of J&K internally and also with the rest of India. Opening the Mughal and Bhaderwah-Bani roads should thus be a part of this process.
Let J&K become the Land of Contact. Once that happens, as Vajpayee commented in a different context, the sky will be the limit.
Broadening Cross-LoC Interactions
D Suba Chandran
Visiting Fellow, Center for Strategic and Regional Studies, University of Jammu
&
Assistant Director, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi
In July 2007, after meeting with Syed Asif Shah, Pakistan’s Commerce Secretary in New Delhi, Jairam Ramesh, India’s Minister for State and Commerce, announced Pakistan had agreed in principle to allow trade through the Line of Control (LoC). Two years after starting a bus service between Muzaffarabad and Srinagar, allowing divided families to meet, steps are being contemplated, for improving cross-LoC interactions further. The pace is painfully slow, but given the hostilities, vested interests and hardened mindsets, enlarging the interactions across the LoC, certainly is a welcome development.
While numerous proposals have been made by both sides on resolving the conflict in J&K, some of the recent ones, such as that of making borders irrelevant, have caught the imagination on both sides. The final resolution can take time and obviously will involve tortuous negotiations among all sides concerned, so that the final understanding is acceptable to India, Pakistan and all parts of Jammu and Kashmir. Until then, what is essential is to open up the border and LoC and allow the movement of people and goods. This could be a parallel process, feeding into the main negotiations, by providing inputs, reservations and possibilities. Who knows, such interactions may break the mindsets and vested interests and allow for a larger constituency working towards peace. Though the cynics may question its achievements, the fact is that the peace process, in place since October 2003, has created a peace constituency in India, Pakistan and J&K. There is no going back, for all actors have taken major steps forward and are willing to move beyond their stated positions.
How can this process be taken forward? What are the opportunities? What steps have been taken so far and how can they be broadened further? Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, recently said in Jammu, “there can no be question of divisions or fresh partitions, but the Line of Control can become a line of peace.” How can the LoC be made the Line of Peace?
Learning from History
If one takes an aerial view of all the three regions of J&K, five major roads could be identified, as if they are five fingers reaching out – Jammu-Sialkot, Rawlakot-Poonch, Uri-Muzafarabad, Kargil-Skardu and Leh-Manasarovar. A casual look at history will also reveal that these five fingers acted as five specific routes, known for their historical and cultural contacts with outside regions – Central Asia, Xinjiang (Sinkiang) and Tibet. The fact that a section of the famous Silk Route, ran through this region, only highlights the historical, economic and cultural significance of these various routes.
Elders in Kashmir Valley often refer to the Muzafarabad-Rawalpindi road before 1947, which was an all-weather road that gave the common man, including the trader the opportunity to reach out to the outside world, all through the year. Similarly, the people of Jammu region talk about opening the Jammu-Sialkot road; the fact that during the pre-1947 period, the Jammu-New Delhi train service ran through Sialkot and Lahore will highlight the historical connections between Jammu and the Punjab. It is also needless to belabour the significance of linkages between Rajouri and Poonch with Mirpur, Kotli and Muzaffarabad, for since time immemorial, these five regions were one on every count – economic, political and cultural. Any study of the Silk Route will highlight the linkages between Leh and Kargil regions with Tibet, Skardu, Gilgit and Central Asia.
All that needs to be done is to learn from history and reestablish the cultural and economic contacts along these five roads. Political issues can take their own pace, for politically these regions have never been homogenous; only in recent history and especially after the British came to the subcontinent, have there been political realignments. But, the economic and cultural contacts among these various regions of J&K are as old as history itself.
Opening these five roads will totally change the nature of present of interactions between the various communities of these regions that include Jammu, Mirpur, Muzaffarabad, Kashmir, Gilgit, Baltistan and Ladakh and in the process, provide positive inputs to the Indo-Pak peace process.
Route 1: Jammu-Sialkot
It is extremely unfortunate most of the discussions on cross-LoC interactions have been focused only on the divided families and that too in Rajouri, Poonch, Uri and Baramulla districts. Whether in terms of economy, divided families or history, the linkages of Jammu with its neighbouring regions – Punjab, Mirpur and Muzaffarabad cannot be ignored. The Jammu-Sialkot links – both road and rail – in particular have great significance.
The Jammu-Sialkot road, before 1947 was the primary link for the people of this region with the outside world and the railway line from Lahore to Jammu, ended in the heart of Jammu city. Along with Rajouri, Poonch, Uri and Baramulla, Jammu too, has a sizeable number of divided families.
While the first bus service caters to the divided families in Kashmir Valley, mainly in the districts of Uri and Srinagar, the second bus service cater to the meeting of families primarily in Rajouri and Poonch districts. What has been forgotten or been under-emphasized is that there are divided families in Jammu district as well. From Jammu city, all the way up to Sialkot – hardly 40kms away – including RS Pora and Suchetgarh, there are numerous families that are divided ones.
Opening of this road is important for several reasons. First, it will expand the points of interactions along the LoC/international border (IB) and will enlarge the constituencies that get benefited out of increasing cross-LoC interactions . As mentioned above, current interactions are confined to five or six districts of entire Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh. Consider the fact that the road between the two Kashmirs in the Valley was opened in 2005, followed by the next road in the Poonch district in 2006. Other roads should have been opened subsequently; opening of the Jammu-Sialkot road will address this imbalance.
Besides the issue of divided families, Jammu has been culturally linked with Sialkot region. Balraj Puri remembers how people of his generation during their younger days, used to visit Sialkot and how people from those areas visited Jammu to take a dip in the canal waters of Jammu. The Baba Chamiliyal mela, celebrated along the border every year, highlights the cultural linkages between the two sides in this region. Every year, people from the other side of the border throng the border to receive soil and sharbath from the Baba’s shrine in Chamliyal village.
Economic benefits of opening this road are also immense. If Kashmir region is known for its horticulture and handicrafts industry, the manufacturing sector in Jammu has grown considerably in recent years. From Lakhanpur to Bari Brahmana, this entire belt has become an important economic region for manufactured goods. From tea to tyres, Jammu could send its goods through the Sialkot route much faster.
Annil Suri, President of the Bari Brahmana Industries Association says, “Mirpur is only five hours from Jammu. Sialkot, once upon a time was the mandi. From life-saving drugs to steel, there is so much that Jammu could trade across.” He also feels that this will help the J&K industry to increase its annual turnover by at least 50 percent. Today, the turnover in organized sector alone is around Rs.100,000 crores. With Pakistan planning to six-lane the Sialkot-Lahore road, this means goods from Jammu could reach the heart of Pakistan’s Punjab in four to five hours – much faster than newspapers from Jammu reach Poonch or Kishtwar.
In addition, opening this route will also complement the economies of the two regions – Jammu and Kashmir. While handicrafts and horticultural products are likely to dominate the cross-LoC trade in the Valley, manufactured items will dominate cross-LoC/IB trade from Jammu.
Besides, the Jammu region could also trade through two other routes – Nowshera-Mirpur/Kotli and Poonch-Rawlakot. In this connection, opening another point of interaction in the Jammu region is also essential. Yuvraj Gupta, who crossed the LoC in 1947, when he was ten years old, feels that in this region, most divided families are from Mirpur and Kotli regions, and hence opening this route will benefit them.
And a Chenab Express?
As mentioned above, before 1947 there was a train service from Jammu to Sialkot. People who had to get to New Delhi, took this train that passed through Sialkot and Lahore. Elders in the city even today remember the old railway station in Jammu. Consider what is happening along the international border in the Gujarat-Sind region. There is a ‘Thar Express’ between Munabao and Kokhrapar addressing the concerns of this region, and a ‘Samjhauta Express’ between Wagah and Atari, addressing the concerns of the rest in North India.
If the above-mentioned regions can have train services, why not have a ‘Chenab Express’ between Jammu and Sialkot? Whether this section is considered as LoC or as part of the international border by India and Pakistan, there is no justification for not opening this route for both the international border and LoC have been opened elsewhere. Why not in Jammu then?
Route 2: Poonch-Rawlakot
This route was opened in 2006 for divided families and the fact that there are numerous such families in this region, resulted in this route becoming a big hit. In terms of numbers, crossings across the Chakan-da-Bagh are huge when compared to the Aman Setu.
A beginning has been made, but this needs to be consolidated and expanded further. As shall be seen subsequently, the Kashmir Valley has adequate goods, which could be exported successfully across the LoC. Unfortunately, there is not much that could be traded from the Rajour-Poonch region to the other side. Nevertheless, this region has great tourist potential. The shrine of Baba Ghulam Shah and the Chingus fort, both near Rajouri are of great religious and historical significance. Besides, this region could become an important hub for educational activities. In Rajouri, a technical University in the name of Baba Ghulam Shah has already been established, with several courses, including MBA and MCA.
More importantly, so far, cross-LoC interactions through this route are limited to only the divided families, who have gone from here to the other side. Likewise, numerous families, belonging to the Hindu and Sikh communities came from the other side to this part of Kashmir and are settled all over the Jammu region. Unfortunately, these people do not have families on the other side of the LoC, but they would still like to visit their former homes. Who can resist the temptation of visiting their place of birth? Especially in this region, where there is always an emotional attachment to the “motherland” irrespective of the community in which one is born?
Says, Sabir Afaqi, a poet, who recently visited Jammu from across, and who has his relatives on this side, “every one who visits from that side to this side, would like to carry some soil back. So would those who migrated from there, if they are allowed to.” In fact, while talking about there not being adequate goods from these region to trade across, if anyone were allowed to sell soil across the LoC packaged as “Rajouri soil,” “Kotli soil,” etc., he is sure to make a fortune by doing so. So intense is the emotional attachment to visit the place of birth.
Route 3: Uri-Muzaffarabad
Undoubtedly, the opening of this road in 2005, followed by the Poonch-Rawlakot road in 2006, was the biggest Confidence Building Measure (CBM) between India and Pakistan in the recent years, relating to Jammu and Kashmir. When the first bus rolled across the LoC on 7 April 2005, many elders living away from the main road, walked all the way, just to have a glimpse of the bus. On being asked why she came to Baramulla to see this first bus, an old lady replied with tears in her eyes, “I don’t know. I just wanted to see. And I felt much younger when I saw the bus finally.”
Now more than two years later, what is the status of this bus service and how do the locals in these areas perceive this bus service? Mehraj, hailing from Sopore and a lecturer in a government college says, “The bus service is good but provides very limited relief. It only addresses the divided families.” Masood, a student in Kashmir University, whose family is engaged in apple cultivation in Anantnag feels that the opening of this road will have any real meaning only of it is opened for trade. Says Bashir Mir, Human Aid Society in Baramulla, “now the only link for us is through the Banihal pass, which is prone to landslides. For people like us from the border districts of Baramulla, Rawalpindi is closer and is approachable all through the year.”
Therein lies the problem with this road. As of now, this road is opened only for divided families. The fact that there are more divided families in Rajouri-Poonch-Mirpur region and not many in Kashmir Valley is underlined by the limited number of people that the cross the LoC today via the Aman Setu. Unless this road is opened for trade and travel for more than just divided families, it does not make much sense.
The economic argument for opening the Uri-Muzaffarabad road is strong. The Kashmir Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) has been spearheading this effort relentlessly ever since both countries decided to open the LoC. Right from the memorandum presented to the Prime Minister two years back to the recent appeal relating to the list of items that could be traded along the LoC, the KCCI has been spearheading an independent initiative to open the LoC for trade. (See interview with Abdul Hamid Punjabi, Secretary-General of KCCI).
From carpets to fruits (especially apples, almonds and walnuts), and shawls to wooden furniture, there is so much that Kashmir Valley could send to the other side, if the road is opened for trade. The apple industry in particular will benefit immensely from opening the LoC for trade. Today, the apple growers all over Kashmir Valley send their products, only through the Jawahar tunnel by trucks to Jammu, New Delhi and then beyond, Says the President of Apple Association in Sopore, “this road is unstable and unpredictable. If it is closed, due to landslides or other related natural causes, the apples are stuck inside.” Agrees another apple grower from Sophian, “given the problems related to transportation and packaging, the apple industry is already facing a serious crisis. If alternatives are not found, this industry will die slowly.”
Larger economic and security issues related to the horticultural industry in Kashmir Valley will underline the opening of LoC for trade. This does not mean, other items including carpets, shawls and wooden furniture should be given less importance in considering the cross-LoC trade. Given the fact that nearly 70 percent of the population is dependent on horticulture and that the fruits are perishable items, the long-term implications of not exploring alternative roads will greatly affect this industry.
Imagine, if this road is opened for trade, apples from Anantnag and Sopore could reach Rawalpindi via Muzaffarabad faster than they could reach New Delhi. And they could also reach other cities of Pakistan such as Lahore and Karachi. Some of the fruit owners believe that they can even send their apples to China and Central Asia through these cities.
M A Sofi, whose family is engaged in this business considers such an effort to reach out to outside markets quickly will also improve the standard of apples being produced in Kashmir Valley (See interview) Once the Kashmiri apples are in the international market competing with those from the US and New Zealand, this will automatically lead to investing more in better technology from production to packaging. In simple words, it would revolutionize the apple industry, the main source of livelihood in Kashmir Valley.
Opening of this route for goods will also broaden the peace constituency inside Kashmir Valley, which will have larger political implications for cross-LoC interactions between the two Kashmirs and Indo-Pak relations. Opening this road for trade will directly benefit more than 80 percent of the population in the Valley, whose livelihood depends on horticulture and handicrafts.
Besides trade, tourism is another important sector in the Kashmir Valley. Besides the immediate economic gains to the struggling tourist industry, it will also help other industries such as the handicrafts and horticulture. Besides divided families, numerous others in Mirpur, Muzaffarabad, Gilgit and Baltistan regions, would love to visit the Valley and Jammu. Is there a soul in this region who cannot be tempted to take a drive along and a boat ride in the Dal Lake? Or to visit Gulmarg or journey to some of the most revered shrines such as the Charar-e-Sharif?
Such movement, besides supporting the tourist industry which has been hit by the violence, will also create new places of interest. From new dhabas to restaurants all along the road from Uri, movement of tourists could create new economic opportunities in Kashmir Valley.
Politically, it would also allow both sets of Kashmirs to appreciate the levels of political freedom, governance and security issues on the other side. Everyone agrees that there is propaganda unleashed by many vested interests. Let the Kashmiris across the LoC visit each other and see for themselves, where lies the truth. Certainly, New Delhi has nothing to lose in initiating such interactions at popular, economic and political levels. In fact, New Delhi has much to gain; it has only to liberate itself from the cocoon it has elaborately woven and has hidden inside with a negative mentality.
Consider also the political impact such an opening will create inside Valley. Will it not break entrenched mindsets? Such a move will reduce the hold of hardliners, extremists and militants over society. Both Syed Ali Geelani and Syed Salahudin are openly against any cross-LoC interactions. So are the militants – whether they are Kashmiri or Pakistani. The fact that the tourist reception center in Srinagar was targeted and burnt down on the eve of the inaugural service of the bus between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad underlines how hostile the extremists are to cross-LoC interactions.
Economic movement along the LoC, certainly will break the hold of such hawks over local society. Any anti-economy fatwas will then be repulsed and rejected for daily livelihood is ultimately more important than outdated political rhetoric.
If the benefits are so huge, why the delay in opening this road for trade? Rauf Punjabi, former President of the KCCI says, “opening the LoC for trade should have been next obvious step. Unfortunately, the delay is inordinate. The mindsets need to be broken.” The local community feels that India and Pakistan should take bolder steps to increase the interactions and also involve Kashmiris in such interactions. For example, from the apple and tourist associations to the KCCI, none were invited by the Working Group constituted on this issue by Manmohan Singh. What stops New Delhi from sending a delegation to the other side of Kashmir and subsequently inviting the trade chambers in Muzaffarabad here?
Route 4: Kargil-Skardu
As in the case of the Jammu-Sialkot road and the divided families in Jammu, the Kargil-Skardu road and the divided families of this region too have not been adequately focused on while discussing cross-LoC interactions.
The LoC not only divided the Pahris in Rajouri and Poonch and the Kashmiris in the Valley, but has also divided the Baltis in Kargil and Skardu regions. There are hundreds of divided families in Kargil, Batalik and Turtuk regions, who would love to visit the other side and see their relatives. While the voices of the divided families in Kashmir Valley and Jammu region are heard, thanks to the print and electronic media, it is unfortunate, that these regions hardly get noticed. Obviously it is not easy for a journalist or a researcher to reach these regions, stay there and interact with these divided families, for the road to these regions both from Srinagar and Leh are treacherous.
As a result, the divided families of these regions do not have an adequate voice. How many outside J&K, or for that matter even inside the State know that there are divided families here? In a way, the Kargil War in 1999 was a blessing in disguise as the region suddenly came into the limelight and became internationally known. But for the divided families, the story remains the same. Perhaps, they are waiting to be discovered.
Numerous arguments have been made about how much it costs to travel from Muzaffarabad and Mirpur to Baramulla or Jammu. Imagine how much time and cost it would take for someone from Skardu to visit Kargil. The available route for someone from Skardu is through Gilgit, Islamabad and then to New Delhi, Jammu, Srinagar and finally Kargil. One could easily go around the world and return to the starting point, by the time someone starts from Skardu and reaches Kargil, which are separated by only about 130kms; if the road is opened from Kargil to Skardu, it would take just five to six hours.
People of this region – from Leh to Gilgit, believe that they are distinct, historically and politically. Ismail Khan, an eminent writer from the Northern Areas wrote recently that the conflict and violence witnessed in Kashmir had nothing to do with the people of this region. He wrote, “The fact is that neither Ladakh nor the Gilgit-Baltistan are ‘Kashmiri’. The locals do not eat, dress or speak like the Kashmiri, and have much more in common with each other in every way in terms of culture and sensibility than with Srinagar valley or Azad Kashmir. The people of Ladakh and Gilgit-Balitistan have been dragged unwillingly into the Kashmir conflict, the major continuous flashpoint of South Asia, simply because a confluence of geography and history brought them under the state of Jammu and Kashmir.”
So the general question asked here is, why should the people and divided families in the Northern Areas and Kargil suffer for a conflict that has nothing to do with them? One main reason for this question clearly is due to the fact that they feel alienated by and unrepresented in the discussions that are being held between India and Pakistan on J&K. When was the last time, that there was a discussion in New Delhi or in Islamabad, saying that the people of Leh-Kargil-Skardu-Gilgit region should also be taken into account?
Such reservations are bound to arise. Consider the geographical extent of this region – Ladakh and Northern Areas comprise two thirds of the entire J&K territory! This is why opening Kargil-Skardu road becomes important. It would not only address the divided families of this region, but also help set right the lopsided nature of cross-LoC interactions.
Also, historically from times immemorial, these regions from Leh to Gilgit were interconnected economically, politically and culturally. Until 1947, trade and the movement of people took place continuously from Tibet to Central Asia through Leh, Kargil, Skardu and Gilgit. (See the article “Once upon a time along the Silk Route”). Traders, caravans, people and religions moved along the Silk Route.
Opening this route, in fact should be seen in conjunction with the opening of another important route in this area – the Leh-Mansarovar route, which also has historical and religious significance.
Route 5: Leh-Manasarovar
While the other four routes discussed above are along the international border and LoC between India and Pakistan, the Leh-Mansarovar route lies across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) between India and China.
Unlike the other routes, there are not many divided families across the LAC in this region. However, opening this route is important for historical reasons. As mentioned above, the Silk Route was the only outlet for the people of Ladakh, until the Zoji La and Leh-Manali roads were opened for regular traffic in the recent years.
Economically, the local population will greatly benefit out of this route, mainly through tourism. Kailash Mansarovar, one of the most revered Hindu pilgrim destinations, is only about 300kms from Demchok on the LAC. The road up to Demchok is well-laid and much of the road from there to Mansarovar, which is under the Chinese control is also motorable.
Opening this route, will greatly benefit the local population in the Leh region, which is primarily dependent on tourism for its survival. Consider the fact, that the Zoji La is closed for six months in a year and the road from Leh to Srinagar via Kargil is one of the most dangerous, in this entire region.
Along with the peace process with Pakistan, India is also engaged in talks to resolve the boundary dispute with China. Further it was not until 2003 that China accepted Sikkim as a part of India. However, with Nathu La in Sikkim being opened for border trade between the India and China in July 2006, a similar arrangement could be reached with respect to Demchok also this time for pilgrim traffic. Jabin Jacob, of the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS), New Delhi says, “Despite the border dispute, given China’s interest in quickening the pace of economic developing in its western provinces, there is no reason to believe that it would be particularly averse to opening this route. The returns from tourism generated in the process could be enormous for both Ladakh and Tibet. In fact, the opening of this route might even provide added incentive for breakthroughs in other areas of the border negotiations.”
From the perspectives of the entire region of J&K, opening the Leh-Manasarovar and Kargil-Skardu roads are important. In short, reviving the Silk Route is an absolute priority that will revolutionize these regions starting from Demchok to Sust (between the Northern Areas and Xinjiang along the Karakoram Highway). Skardu is already well-linked with Gilgit, which is situated strategically along the Karakoram Highway. From Gilgit, one could reach Xinjiang and Central Asia turning northwards or Karachi and Gwadar ports by turning south..
There is already a bus service between Gilgit and Kashgar in Xinjiang and General Musharraf recently announced that Pakistan and China were planning to build a railway and pipeline along the Highway. He declared that project when completed would be one of the new wonders of the world. With China already constructing a railway line to Lhasa connecting Tibet with rest of China all the way up to Beijing, such a railway line along the Karakoram Highway is no longer unthinkable. Such a line could also join up with the already existing rail network between Beijing and Central Asia, vial Urumqi the Xinjiang capital. China has also been investing heavily in energy in Central Asia and has been laying a network of gas pipelines as well.
Reviving the Silk Route, in this region, will provide Leh and Kargil access to this most vital and strategic confluence of roads, railways, and pipelines. In turn, this has the potential to transform this entire region, which is linked at present, to the outside world only thorough two routes, both of which are closed for half of the year. This revived Silk Route would renew the meeting of peoples and civilizations that have occurred from time immemorial.
The Roads Ahead
For long India has been on the defensive in and on J&K. Whatever be the issue – militarization and demilitarization, self-rule, autonomy or human rights – there has been an onslaught at the international level against India’s position by Pakistan and a section led by the Hurriyat inside Kashmir Valley. The 1990s were witness to this trend; the upsurge in insurgency during the late 1980s and early 1990s, the initial failures and problems of counter-insurgency, political demands from Kashmir Valley, issues of human rights and international pressure – all of them placed India in a defensive position.
The LoC, so far has been primarily perceived as a line dividing the two Kashmirs. In particular, the Indian state has been attempting to convert this LoC into a permanent border, thereby closing its links with the other side forever. Though not stated publicly, the perception that India would settle for converting the LoC into the international border is also a part of India’s defensive approach. It is time for New Delhi to re-imagine the LoC as a Line of Contact.
To broaden the scope even further, the entire region of J&K, including Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh needs to be placed within a larger paradigm and perceived as a land of contact with three regions – Tibet in the east, Xinjiang in the north, Pakistan in the west and Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia in the northwest. Opening the above routes would then become a part of a coherent strategy. Such an expansion – economic, cultural and strategic – whether it takes place by 2010 or by 2015, requires New Delhi start preparing for such an eventuality. As a part of this process, efforts should also be made to link the various regions of J&K internally and also with the rest of India. Opening the Mughal and Bhaderwah-Bani roads should thus be a part of this process.
Let J&K become the Land of Contact. Once that happens, as Vajpayee commented in a different context, the sky will be the limit.
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