Exit Musharraf; Enter Zardari

Exit Musharraf; Enter Zardari

D. Suba Chandran

Pervez Musharraf is now history. Asif Zardari is likely to become the next President of Pakistan. Unfortunately, Musharraf’s exit has not solved any problems for Pakistan; in fact it has only raised new issues. With the PPP nominating Zardari as the President, the road ahead for him and his party is only full of challenges.

First major challenge is political instability that has already started. Nawaz Sharif’s PML has decided to walk out of the coalition and decide to stay as opposition. Sharif’s nomination of former Chief Justice - Saeed Zaman Siddiqui, as his party’s candidate for the post of President clearly highlights, that PML-N is completely out of the coalition. Though Zardari has apologized for the rift between the two parties and has requested to withdraw PML-N’s candidate, Sharif has not responded to it positively so far.

Though Zardari has enough numbers in the Parliament to be elected as the President, the rift between the two parties is likely to cause problems at national and provincial levels. Given the challenges Pakistan is facing – political, economic and security, it is important that the leading democratic parties work together. More importantly, numbers in Punjab provincial assembly is likely to pose a major issue. PML-N will need the support of PPP or the PML-Q to govern. Besides, the PPP government at the national level and PML-N government at provincial level, with Zardari as the President are likely to increase the tensions. With the President likely to retain the article 58-2(b), which gives Zardari the power to dismiss the national and provincial assemblies, political stability in Pakistan will be the first major challenge.

Second major challenge is likely to arise from restoring the judiciary and making it independent. While the PML-N has walked out of the coalition, as the PPP has refused to honour the agreements on restoring the judiciary. Zardari fears, restoring Iftikhar Chaudhary as the Chief Justice will restore the latter questioning the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) promulgated by Musharraf, which gave indemnity to Zardari. Besides, the lawyers have also been threatening to re-launch the movement on this issue.

Third major challenge is the ongoing violence in FATA and its spill over into the settled districts of NWFP and beyond. The military is concerned on the growing violence; suicide attacks are wrecking havoc on its personnel and installations. On the other hand, the elected representatives in the NWFP – belonging to the ANP and JUI-F prefer a political statement. A ceasefire has been already announced starting from end August. Given the fact the political ‘peace’ deals of the past have failed, ongoing operations or its failure is likely to test the civil-military relations within.

Finally, there is a huge American pressure to “do more” in terms of Pakistan’s contribution towards Global War on Terrorism (GWOT). The US is upset with the ISI not sharing the information and fears an element within Pakistan’s intelligence agencies are supporting the Taliban.

Will the PPP government and Zardari as President rise to the challenge? The answer has to wait, as the coming months are crucial in getting Pakistan back into democratic mode or slipping into anarchy.