Friday, June 12, 2009

The Decade Ahead-Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh

The Decade Ahead
Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh

D. Suba Chandran
Deputy Director, IPCS, New Delhi


This decade has been comparatively much better, when compared to the 1980s and 1990s. There have been numerous positive developments during this decade, despite the see-saw relationship between India and Pakistan, changes in governments at the national level in India, growing instability in Pakistan and post 9/11 economic and political developments at the global level.

Peaceful elections, declining militancy and violence and cross-LoC interactions can certainly be considered as some of the most positive developments of this decade. Undoubtedly, they have set the field for the government and the society to develop further, and move towards a better situation in the next decade. At the same time, there have also been negative developments – as witnessed after the Amarnath Shrine Board crisis, creating further divisions between the regions and societies in terms of region and religion. Further more, there are certain areas, in which the negative status quo is continuing - political equations between the separatists and the mainstream leadership, bad governance and corruption at the state and societal levels.

Where will J&K move towards in the next ten years? Rather, where should J&K move towards during the 2010s? What are the opportunities? What are the challenges? The following questions assume significance, given the current trends during this decade.

Will there be better governance?
Governance, undoubtedly, is the key issue that will address many other challenges in the coming decade. The progress report in this decade is mixed; there were serious efforts made to improve the governance process in J&K. Yet there is a long way to go. Much will depend on how the State and society responds to the process of governance.

Unfortunately, governance has been perceived primarily as the domain of the State, in particular that of the ruling government. Corruption and bad governance can not be attributed to one particular actor in J&K. Everyone needs to take the blame and look inwards, if J&K needs to progress in the forthcoming decade. The Union government, State government, ruling and opposition parties, separatists and militants, security forces, bureaucracy, media, NGOs and the society – every one has played an important negative role in contributing to the present status of governance in J&K. No doubt, J&K is one of the most corrupt states in the entire country.

Governance is a larger concept, and should not be narrowly viewed through the corruption index. This is where, one should look forward to the following, in terms of making J&K a better governed state in the coming decade.

First, the political leadership and the political will. Will there be a significant change in how the present political leadership both at the state and national levels, perceive the governance process in J&K? There are two positive developments in this decade, which hold promise, in terms of leadership. First is Omar Abdullah. Second is Manmohan Singh.

Undoubtedly, despite whatever the critics may say, Omar Abdullah is a charismatic leader, young, dynamic clean and earnest in taking J&K forward. Omar should be the rallying point for J&K in delivering. Now, what are his strengths and weaknesses? He may lack the experience, but is likely to learn faster, given his seriousness. This is where his detractors need to give him the time and space, to learn from his own mistakes. Omar is also the leader of the National Conference, a party which is known for its tactical approaches, being corrupt and shrewd. Whatever may be the negative outlook of the NC, one should also understand, it is the only party with considerable grass roots support in all three regions of J&K and acceptable to the multi-ethnic society. Is there any other party in J&K, that has the support in all three regions? Neither the PDP nor the Congress is likely to grow in all three regions, the way that the NC has already established itself. BJP, despite its performance in the last elections, is unlikely to expand or even repeat its own performance in the next elections.

Besides, Omar Abdullah should take this as a challenge and change the negative image of NC. Unless he is able to transform the NC into a positive force, he will not be able to move forward in the 2010s; it is important that the NC regains its base in all three regions and reforms itself into moderate, secular and forward looking political party. Only Omar could deliver this. For this he needs the support of the seniors within the party, starting from his father. Political stability and development in J&K during the 2010s will depend much on how relevant the NC becomes.

Omar Abdullah may also need the support from New Delhi to make the above change both within his party and in terms of improving the governance process. This is where Manmohan Singh becomes important. With his emphasis on 9 percent growth rate, the Prime Minister needs to provide the right space and positive support for Omar to tighten the governance process, political confidence and a degree of autonomy.

Manmohan Singh should ensure, there is accountability in every single penny spent and action taken in J&K. Lack of accountability by the bureaucracy, security forces and successive government have been the primary reason for the failure of governance process in J&K. Manmohan Singh should also provide the space for Omar, in terms of developing confidence and reaching a political understanding. There have been numerous instances in the past, during which for narrow political objectives, the Congress has indulged in making tactical decisions, forcing the political parties in J&K to take a negative approach. One seriously wishes that Manmohan Sigh does repeat the mistakes of his predecessors. Finally, New Delhi should also provide support, in terms of a improving the political environment in J&K. For long, there have been serious discussions on the question of autonomy, dialogue with all shades of opinions in J&K and withdrawal of troops. Manmohan Singh has already made an initiative through his Round Table Conferences and Working Groups. A sincere pursuit of both these strategies will improve the situation in J&K, there by providing a positive atmosphere to Omar Abdullah to take J&K further.

Will there be effective Right to Information, Autonomous Hill Councils and Panchayat Raj?
Three factors will hold the key for any effective deliverance of governance – Right to Information Act in J&K, Effective use of Autonomous Hill Councils and Strengthening of Panchayat Raj Institutions. Any positive development within J&K in 2010s, will undoubtedly be based on how much success has been achieved in these three crucial areas.

RTI Act is in place in J&K, in theory. It has potential to become the most potent force in making the numerous institutions perform, and more importantly provides the people to ensure, there is accountability. RTI cannot become a success story and revolutionize J&K unless Omar and the people want it to become that way. It has to be a two way process. Society, NGOs and the media – all have to play a positive role in making the RTI a potent weapon to ensure accountability, governance and justice.

While everyone took pleasure in blaming the governments for the all round failure of governance processes, there was little introspection in terms of what positive role if any, the society, NGOs and media have played in ensuring accountability. The state will never be able to deliver unless the people demand accountability, develop and inculcate a work culture and not only censure corruption in the public realm, but also develop a strong ethical code which eschews corruption within civil society. Unfortunately, there is much that desires to be done in all these three respects.

Autonomous Hill Councils in Leh and Kargil, despite criticisms have addressed a very crucial area of governance in J&K – decentralisation. Today the two Hill Councils in Ladakh have provided the space for local leadership to engage in a serious self governance process in a meaningful way, addressed the question of alienation vis-à-vis Jammu and Srinagar and improved the delivery mechanisms. Undoubtedly, effective implementation of the Hill Councils in Ladakh has been one great success story in this decade. Credit should be given to the PDP, especially Mufti Sayeed for making this initiative work, by adequately devolving economic and political power.

Is Autonomous Hill or Regional Councils, the right strategy to move ahead, in terms of improving the governance process? Critics argue, that the Hill Councils may only increase the divide between the communities and regions instead of bringing them together. For example, they argue, the Hill Councils of Leh and Kargil have increased the distance between the two regions and between the Muslim and Buddhist communities of Ladakh. Whatever may be the case, majority in Kargil and Leh do believe, that the Hill Councils have helped in decentralisation and devolution of power.

J&K could consider similar Hill or Regional Councils in other parts of the state, especially in interior regions, such as Doda and Poonch. Alternatively, the State could also work on making the panchayatraj institutions effective and deliver at the grass roots level. Any comparative analysis of the functioning of panchayat raj institutions in Punjab and Himachal Pradesh would underline how fragile and inadequate these structures are in J&K. Successive governments have deliberately kept the panchayat raj institutions in a limbo.

If governance process has to take root in J&K in the 2010s, these three institutions – RTI, Hill/Regional Councils and Panchayat Raj have to deliver. If the State has to take the lead on all three, people have to perform their duties to gain the maximum.

Will the Cross-LoC Interactions improve?
The first bus service between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad started in April 2005, with much fanfare and so much of popular expectations on both sides of the Line of Control (LoC). While there are numerous criticisms on the nature and content of the cross-LoC interactions, that have been initiated so far, not many in J&K on both sides of the LoC will disapprove of its usefulness, and the need to expand this process. India and Pakistan, despite the break down in the dialogue, after the Mumbai attacks in October 2008, have continued with this interaction.

Later another service was opened between Poonch and Rawlakote. Both these services address the needs and aspirations of people living in Kashmir Valley and those living in Jammu region, primarily in the twin districts of Rajouri and Poonch. The primary objective of this bus service was mainly to cater the divided families living along the Line of Control. However, the Line of Control does not stop in the Kupwara district of Kashmir Valley and the divided families do not only live in the above districts. The LoC extends further and goes up to NJ9842 in Ladakh, thus including the Leh and Kargil districts of an important and perhaps the largest sub-region of J&K. There are numerous divided families in Kargil and Skardu region as well.

In 2008, India and Pakistan made another bold move, in terms of opening the LoC for the movement of trucks since October 2008. Initially meant for a fortnightly movement, few months within the inauguration of the trade, it has been converted into a weekly phenomenon on the same two routes, in which buses are plying.

In 2010s, given the limitations on the movements across LoC in terms of divided families and trade, and the there is a need to look beyond, in order to improve the cross-LoC interactions. Tourism is one area, which has enormous potential on this issue, where the legal and political aspects can be underplayed.

Today, the two bus services across Uri and Poonch, carry divided families on a regular basis, without much compromises on legal and political issues related to travel. In promoting tourism for un-divided families, but belonging to the State, the same arrangement can be pursued in facilitating travel. If both countries have certain security concerns, to start with, like how the Chinese did in Tibet, India and Pakistan could allow circuit tourism by identifying select places and specific dates. TO be even more specific, as a pilot initiative, both countries could start with pilgrimage tourism and later expand to other forms.

Both in Kashmir Valley and Rajouri and Poonch districts, for examples, there are numerous shrines of Sufis, who are revered by everyone, cutting across regional and religious divides. For example, Shahdra Sahrief near Rajouri is a major shrine, where Baba Ghulam Shah is workshiped by the Muslims, Hindus and even Sikhs from all over the region, Along with Sai Miran, Nagali Saheb and Buddha Amarnath, this could be an effective religious circuit.

Economically, cross-LoC tourism will boost all the regions. From Poonch to Gilgit, there are numerous places of historical, adventure and religious importance that will attract everyone from all parts of Kashmir. Places of worship belonging to Hindu, Muslim, Sikh and Buddhist communities are spread all over J&K and are not limited to one region. In fact, a Buddhist from Ladakh would love to go up to even Swat and beyond; a Pandit would like to visit the Sharada Peeth in Kishan Ganga Valley; and a Muslim would like to visit Hazratbal and Shahadra Sharief. On historical and other significances, Gulmarg, Dal Lake, Ladakh and Jammu would enthral people from the other side, so would be Gilgit, Skardu and Mirpur for people from J&K. Historically, there are numerous places, from ancient era until today that would attract people to visit each other.

Expanding the cross-LoC interactions should be the most important issue between the two Kashmirs and between India and Pakistan in the forthcoming decade. Given the fact that the status quo is not acceptable and there is no military solution, expansion of the interactions across the LoC is the only way to move forward in the next decade.

Will the Violence further Decline?
Consider the following numbers according to the latest estimate from J&K Police. In 2008, compared to 2007, there was a remarkable decline of violence by 40 per cent. For the first time, since the militancy has started, militancy-related incidents have come down below four digits, around 700 in 2008. Since 1991, violence related incidents always stood above 1000. It has been considerably declining in the last few years; in 2007, it came down to 1090, which further got reduced to 708 in 2008. The significance of this number will be clear, if one takes into account the cumulative violence figure in J&K since 1990. There have been over 67,000 incidents of militant violence, killing more than 21,000 militants, 16,600 civilians, and 5,200 security force personnel. Besides, the J&K Police has seized about 12.5 tonnes of RDX and more than 31 tonnes of other explosives besides 6000 grenades and recovered more than 30,000 AK rifles from terrorists.

According to the latest figures, for the first time since militancy took roots in the state, civilian casualties were lowest in 2008. For the first time, it has come down to two digits; it was 89, the lowest, in the last two decades. There were 164 civilian deaths in 2007. It was in 1996, J&K witnessed the highest number of civilian casualties, when 1,413 people were killed that year when elections were conducted to the state assembly first time after more than six years.

Will the above trend continue in the next decade? Much will depend on the following three internal and external factors. First, a positive outlook amongst the people of J&K resulting in people believing in alternate democratic course of action to fulfil their aspirations. Local inputs to militancy have come down dramatically in the last few years. If the governments of J&K and New Delhi improve the governance process and take measure to restore the confidence in the democratic set up, there will be further decline in violence. This is where New Delhi has to initiate a serious debate relating to demilitarisation, besides renewing the dialogue with various spectrum of public opinion in J&K.

Second, India has to ensure that the cross-LoC interactions continue and expand. Clearly, this cannot be done, without restarting the stalled peace process. Undoubtedly, jumping into any premature dialogue process will be seen as a weakness, unwilling to contemplate the same will also be equally seen weakness. Refusing to talk to a neighbour on crucial issues does reflect a nation that is confident and willing to play a major role in the global system.

Finally, political stability within Pakistan will determine the level of violence in J&K. Will Pakistan be able to sustain and stabilise in the next decade? Will there be political stability? Are there dangers of Taliban violence engulfing the entire Pakistan? These are larger questions, which neither India nor J&K will be able to do much, but the negative implications will be huge. Irrespective of whatever happens in Pakistan, India needs to get ready to face the consequences.

Will the Regions and Religions come closer?
In this decade, there have been serious negative developments relating to radicalisation – religious, regional and ethnic. The crisis relating to Amarnath Shrine Board Land, highlighted the growing divide between the regions and religions. While all these years, Kashmiriyat and Sufism remained the bedrock of Islam in Kashmir Valley, today there is a slow but steady transformation. Especially, the young generation in Kashmir valley and Jammu region are being influenced by the radical ideology, implications of which is inimical to societal peace in the coming decade. Also in the recent years, there is a growing divide between communities, for example the Gujjar and Pahari communities in Jammu, Rajouri and Poonch belt. Ever since the Gujjars were granted the Scheduled Tribe status, the pahari community, which is living in the same socio-economic environment, feels at a dis-advantageous situation.

These are serious developments that have the potential to rupture the social fabric of J&K in the next decade. To begin with, the societies should understand that there are grievances and fears – legitimate and exaggerated vis-à-vis each other. There is a need for a dialogue, to understand each others concerns. There is also a need to realise that there is shared future, that can be achieved only by working together and not by dividing further on regional and religious lines.

To conclude, there have been numerous positive and negative developments in this decade. The next decade holds promise. We can work together to fulfil that promise or fight with each other to ruin it. The choice is in our hands and every one has a responsibility to fulfil.

We wish our leaders – Omar Abdullah and Manmohan Singh to take further bold steps and ensure better governance, and promise them of our support. For, we can’t do much without their initiatives and they can’t do much without our continuous support and trust. So, let us work together and make the next decade productive and more importantly, peaceful.

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