“Sialkot is less than an hour and Mirpur only five hours for the goods from Jammu”
Interview with Annil Suri
President, Bari Brahamana Industries Association
D. Suba Chandran
India and Pakistan has agreed to open the LoC for trade. What are the prospects for the Jammu region?
Jammu region for long has been demanding the opening of LoC for trade. Also it has been demanding for the opening of Jammu-Sialkot road. It is important that both the above happens, so that Jammu region also benefits out of cross-LoC interactions.
Sialkot is less than an hour to reach from Jammu and Mirpur is only five hours for the goods from Jammu by road. Whereas other parts of State, for example Srinagar, takes almost ten hours to reach. Opening the LoC for trade and opening Jammu-Sialkot road are the most important issues related to the trading community in Jammu.
The annual turnover of J&K industry in organized sector is 100,000 crores. There will be an increase by fifty percent if this trade takes place. Other industries, for example, transport industry in Jammu is facing a crisis today; this will help reviving it along.
What are the items that could be traded from Jammu region?
Numerous items could be traded from Jammu region, which includes Steel, welding goods, calcium carbide, handicraft items, bed sheets, pillow covers, life saving drugs, package materials, paints and warnishes. Likewise, there could be items that be received from the other side, for example cement. Also, today Mirpur has electricity for 24 hours. Regions close to the LoC can benefit out of transferring power from that side to here.
Thursday, June 10, 2010
“Unless alternative roads are explored, apple industry in Valley will die soon”
“Unless alternative roads are explored, apple industry in Valley will die soon”
Interview with MA Sofi-Apple Grower & Merchant, Kashmir
D. Suba Chandran
India and Pakistan have agreed to open the LoC for trade. What are the expectations of Apple industry in Kashmir Valley?
Opening Uri-Muzaffarabad road for trade is important, especially for the apple industry. Since almost 80 percent of the population is engaged in various sectors of fruit industry, opening this road will improve this sector. Today, fruit industry is heavily dependent on the Jawahar tunnel, which is the only road to outside world. Except cherries, most of the other fruits go through this road, which is prone for natural disasters such as land slide. For this reason, it is important that Uri-Muzaffarabad road is opened. Traditionally, apples were sold through this road.
Opening LoC for trade will give faster access to Kashmir’s apples. Besides, this road is opened all through the year. Apples from Anantnag could reach Rawalpindi faster than it reaches New Delhi or at times, even Jammu.
What is the market potential on the other side of the LoC?
This road, however should not end in Muzaffarabad, for it will not benefit the fruit industry. For example, five trucks of apples from the Valley will flood the Muzaffarabad city. The apples should be allowed to go to Pakistan, where there is a huge market. Though apples are also grown in Pakistan, Kashmiri industry is much better. Today, even apples produced in Himachal Pradesh reach Pakistan.
How will this trade impact on the apple industry inside Kashmir?
The fruit industry in Kashmir, including the apples, is declining today. If this pace continues, the apple industry will die a natural death and the people associated with this industry will subsequently face further problems. Problems of transporting and packaging are two great issues facing the apple industry today. Loading in Valley and unloading in New Delhi takes a huge cost and also the time involved in this process is significant. Trade through LoC will address this important issue.
In the long run, this will address the Kashmiri apples to compete in the international market. There is a need to invest in better varieties of apples, pesticides and fertilizers. This could be done, only if there is bigger and better market, which could be accessed easily and swiftly. Unless alternative roads are explored, apple industry will die soon.
Interview with MA Sofi-Apple Grower & Merchant, Kashmir
D. Suba Chandran
India and Pakistan have agreed to open the LoC for trade. What are the expectations of Apple industry in Kashmir Valley?
Opening Uri-Muzaffarabad road for trade is important, especially for the apple industry. Since almost 80 percent of the population is engaged in various sectors of fruit industry, opening this road will improve this sector. Today, fruit industry is heavily dependent on the Jawahar tunnel, which is the only road to outside world. Except cherries, most of the other fruits go through this road, which is prone for natural disasters such as land slide. For this reason, it is important that Uri-Muzaffarabad road is opened. Traditionally, apples were sold through this road.
Opening LoC for trade will give faster access to Kashmir’s apples. Besides, this road is opened all through the year. Apples from Anantnag could reach Rawalpindi faster than it reaches New Delhi or at times, even Jammu.
What is the market potential on the other side of the LoC?
This road, however should not end in Muzaffarabad, for it will not benefit the fruit industry. For example, five trucks of apples from the Valley will flood the Muzaffarabad city. The apples should be allowed to go to Pakistan, where there is a huge market. Though apples are also grown in Pakistan, Kashmiri industry is much better. Today, even apples produced in Himachal Pradesh reach Pakistan.
How will this trade impact on the apple industry inside Kashmir?
The fruit industry in Kashmir, including the apples, is declining today. If this pace continues, the apple industry will die a natural death and the people associated with this industry will subsequently face further problems. Problems of transporting and packaging are two great issues facing the apple industry today. Loading in Valley and unloading in New Delhi takes a huge cost and also the time involved in this process is significant. Trade through LoC will address this important issue.
In the long run, this will address the Kashmiri apples to compete in the international market. There is a need to invest in better varieties of apples, pesticides and fertilizers. This could be done, only if there is bigger and better market, which could be accessed easily and swiftly. Unless alternative roads are explored, apple industry will die soon.
“J&K should be the conduit for Indo-Pak trade”-Interview with Tariq Hameed Qarra-Minister of Finance, J&K
“J&K should be the conduit for Indo-Pak trade”
Interview with Tariq Hameed Qarra
Minister of Finance, J&K
D. Suba Chandran
What are the major issues in cross-LoC interactions?
There are four major issues related to cross-LoC interactions today. These include measures to simplify procedures of travel to cross the LoC, increase the movement of traffic in goods, expand the people to people contact and finally, to open new routes.
Why is the delay in addressing these issues?
It is a zig-zag process. There cannot be a miracle in one day or a month. The process is long and takes time. Internal security situation in Pakistan has certainly slowed down this process. The Union government should not get deterred by this internal situation inside Pakistan.
On the positive side, however, there is a political will, on both sides to take this process further. There has also been a change of heart amongst all the actors. Major political parties today are in agreement with this process. Though slowly, the mindsets are changing everywhere. It is a long process.
What measures need to be done to expand the people-to-people contacts across the LoC?
To begin with group tourism could be encouraged. The present interaction is limited only to the divided families. This needs to be enlarged. Universities in both sides could be encouraged to be centers of exchange. There could be short courses for students across. There could even be reservations for students from the other side. Cultural and professional exchanges should be the next obvious step in this process.
There could be a joint consultative group, which could address natural calamities. Such a group could act as a disaster management group. For example, if there occurs any calamity such as the Bird Flu in either side of the LoC, the other side will also be affected. Such a group could address these issues.
What needs to be done to facilitate the cross-LoC travel further?
Ever since Uri-Muzaffarabad road has been opened, there is substantial movement across the LoC. But this movement is limited only to the divided families. There is a need to broaden this movement. People in general, in J&K should be allowed to cross the LoC.
People who want to visit religious places also should be allowed. There are security issues, however to begin with group tourism could be allowed. Also people who are in need of medical facilities could be allowed to cross the LoC. Today Srinagar has the State-of-art medical facilities.
Procedure to cross across the LoC need to be simplified further. The present process is long and cumbersome. The Permanent Resident Certificate (PRC) could be considered as the basic document required to across. Besides, the process now takes a long time; this should be simplified and processed in two months.
For traders, entry and exit could be made multiple and the permission could be granted at least for a year. There should also be provisions to get special permission on a priority basis in cases of emergency.
There should be more centers to process the applications. Districts like Poonch, Rajouri, Jammu, Anantnag, Srinagar and Baramulla should have centers of processing.
What major measures need to be done on the issue of cross-LoC trade?
To start with, a joint consultative mechanism including officials and representatives of trade and comers from both sides of Kashmir should be formed. This consultative body could then exchange a list of items that could be exported and imported.
It is important the goods are loaded from one point and unloaded directly in the other point in the mandis. There is certain security issues involved in the beginning. In that case, common depots could be developed, that would help transporting goods on a fast track. Checking should be expedited. Perhaps, for the first three years, customs duty could be expedited.
There is an urgent need to build the infrastructure. For example, the Aman Setu between Uri and Muzafarabad will not be able to handle any heavy movement of goods. Roads and bridges need to be built to address the movement of goods.
The ultimate objective should be in terms of establishing a free trade zone in J&K. This could be done in stages and modalities could be worked out. In short, J&K should become a conduit for Indo-Pak trade.
Interview with Tariq Hameed Qarra
Minister of Finance, J&K
D. Suba Chandran
What are the major issues in cross-LoC interactions?
There are four major issues related to cross-LoC interactions today. These include measures to simplify procedures of travel to cross the LoC, increase the movement of traffic in goods, expand the people to people contact and finally, to open new routes.
Why is the delay in addressing these issues?
It is a zig-zag process. There cannot be a miracle in one day or a month. The process is long and takes time. Internal security situation in Pakistan has certainly slowed down this process. The Union government should not get deterred by this internal situation inside Pakistan.
On the positive side, however, there is a political will, on both sides to take this process further. There has also been a change of heart amongst all the actors. Major political parties today are in agreement with this process. Though slowly, the mindsets are changing everywhere. It is a long process.
What measures need to be done to expand the people-to-people contacts across the LoC?
To begin with group tourism could be encouraged. The present interaction is limited only to the divided families. This needs to be enlarged. Universities in both sides could be encouraged to be centers of exchange. There could be short courses for students across. There could even be reservations for students from the other side. Cultural and professional exchanges should be the next obvious step in this process.
There could be a joint consultative group, which could address natural calamities. Such a group could act as a disaster management group. For example, if there occurs any calamity such as the Bird Flu in either side of the LoC, the other side will also be affected. Such a group could address these issues.
What needs to be done to facilitate the cross-LoC travel further?
Ever since Uri-Muzaffarabad road has been opened, there is substantial movement across the LoC. But this movement is limited only to the divided families. There is a need to broaden this movement. People in general, in J&K should be allowed to cross the LoC.
People who want to visit religious places also should be allowed. There are security issues, however to begin with group tourism could be allowed. Also people who are in need of medical facilities could be allowed to cross the LoC. Today Srinagar has the State-of-art medical facilities.
Procedure to cross across the LoC need to be simplified further. The present process is long and cumbersome. The Permanent Resident Certificate (PRC) could be considered as the basic document required to across. Besides, the process now takes a long time; this should be simplified and processed in two months.
For traders, entry and exit could be made multiple and the permission could be granted at least for a year. There should also be provisions to get special permission on a priority basis in cases of emergency.
There should be more centers to process the applications. Districts like Poonch, Rajouri, Jammu, Anantnag, Srinagar and Baramulla should have centers of processing.
What major measures need to be done on the issue of cross-LoC trade?
To start with, a joint consultative mechanism including officials and representatives of trade and comers from both sides of Kashmir should be formed. This consultative body could then exchange a list of items that could be exported and imported.
It is important the goods are loaded from one point and unloaded directly in the other point in the mandis. There is certain security issues involved in the beginning. In that case, common depots could be developed, that would help transporting goods on a fast track. Checking should be expedited. Perhaps, for the first three years, customs duty could be expedited.
There is an urgent need to build the infrastructure. For example, the Aman Setu between Uri and Muzafarabad will not be able to handle any heavy movement of goods. Roads and bridges need to be built to address the movement of goods.
The ultimate objective should be in terms of establishing a free trade zone in J&K. This could be done in stages and modalities could be worked out. In short, J&K should become a conduit for Indo-Pak trade.
“Cross-LoC Trade should not be limited only to two Kashmirs. It should go beyond Muzaffarabad”-Interview with Abdul Hamid Punjabi
“Cross-LoC Trade should not be limited only to two Kashmirs. It should go beyond Muzaffarabad”
Interview with Abdul Hamid Punjabi
Secretary General, Kashmir Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI)
D. Suba Chandran
The LoC is opened for the divided families more than two years ago. Cross-LoC trade is yet to take place. Why and where is the delay?
The Kashmir Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) has been demanding the opening of LoC for trade ever since it is opened. From the Prime Minister to the Chief Minister in J&K, it has met all concerned persons on this vital issue. The road is yet to open. The reason is purely political. Perhaps, India and Pakistan have to settle the formalities of trade.
What potential does the cross-LoC trade has? What would be the volume of trade if the LoC is opened for goods?
There is tremendous potential for cross-LoC trade. From Kashmir Valley, goods that could be traded include the following: Carpets, rugs, paper machie, shawls, wood carvings, furniture, silk and silk products, apples, dry fruits, saffron, wazwan, leather and leather products, readymade packed foods and fabricated items like ornaments of gold.
On the volume of trade, it is difficult to predict today, what would be exact amount. For that it requires meeting of both sides, exchange of lists of items that could be traded and approval by the governments concerned to trade them. None of the above has happened so far. How can one predict the volume of trade now?
What should be the nature of this cross-LoC trade?
The cross-LoC trade should begin as early as possible. And this trade should not be limited only to two Kashmirs. It should go beyond Muzaffarabad to Rawalpindi and other parts of Pakistan. If the goods from this part of Kashmir is allowed to go only up to Muzaffarabad, it will not benefit the traders much.
To start with, Uri-Muzaffarabad road should be given importance, for it is short and an all weather road. Subsequently, other roads should also be opened for trade across the LoC. For example, from Kashmir Valley, goods could be traded through Gurez to Astore and also via Kargil to Skardu.
To support that kind of a trading activity, initiatives also needs to taken inside in terms of improving the infrastructure. Roads need to be built and expanded; there is need for better supply of electricity, which is a big hurdle today in augmenting the manufacture in Valley. If there is better electricity and roads, productivity could be doubled inside Kashmir.
Finally, KCCI should be engaged in this process. For example, KCCI was not a part of the working group on the economic development constituted under Dr Rangarajan. In fact, the KCCI has submitted a memorandum on the submission of this group’s report.
Interview with Abdul Hamid Punjabi
Secretary General, Kashmir Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI)
D. Suba Chandran
The LoC is opened for the divided families more than two years ago. Cross-LoC trade is yet to take place. Why and where is the delay?
The Kashmir Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI) has been demanding the opening of LoC for trade ever since it is opened. From the Prime Minister to the Chief Minister in J&K, it has met all concerned persons on this vital issue. The road is yet to open. The reason is purely political. Perhaps, India and Pakistan have to settle the formalities of trade.
What potential does the cross-LoC trade has? What would be the volume of trade if the LoC is opened for goods?
There is tremendous potential for cross-LoC trade. From Kashmir Valley, goods that could be traded include the following: Carpets, rugs, paper machie, shawls, wood carvings, furniture, silk and silk products, apples, dry fruits, saffron, wazwan, leather and leather products, readymade packed foods and fabricated items like ornaments of gold.
On the volume of trade, it is difficult to predict today, what would be exact amount. For that it requires meeting of both sides, exchange of lists of items that could be traded and approval by the governments concerned to trade them. None of the above has happened so far. How can one predict the volume of trade now?
What should be the nature of this cross-LoC trade?
The cross-LoC trade should begin as early as possible. And this trade should not be limited only to two Kashmirs. It should go beyond Muzaffarabad to Rawalpindi and other parts of Pakistan. If the goods from this part of Kashmir is allowed to go only up to Muzaffarabad, it will not benefit the traders much.
To start with, Uri-Muzaffarabad road should be given importance, for it is short and an all weather road. Subsequently, other roads should also be opened for trade across the LoC. For example, from Kashmir Valley, goods could be traded through Gurez to Astore and also via Kargil to Skardu.
To support that kind of a trading activity, initiatives also needs to taken inside in terms of improving the infrastructure. Roads need to be built and expanded; there is need for better supply of electricity, which is a big hurdle today in augmenting the manufacture in Valley. If there is better electricity and roads, productivity could be doubled inside Kashmir.
Finally, KCCI should be engaged in this process. For example, KCCI was not a part of the working group on the economic development constituted under Dr Rangarajan. In fact, the KCCI has submitted a memorandum on the submission of this group’s report.
Book Reviews-A Mission in Kashmir & In Search of a future
One Issue, Many Perspectives. Yet Refreshing
D. Suba Chandran
Assistant Director, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi
A Mission in Kashmir
Andrew Whitehead
Penguin-Viking, New Delhi, 2007, Rs.495, 285 Pages
In Search of a Future: The Story of Kashmir
David Davidas
Penguin-Viking, New Delhi, 2007, Rs.495, 381 Pages
Andrew Whitehead and David Devadas’s works focus primarily on Kashmir Valley. Whitehead gives an extra-ordinary insight into the infamous raid by the pashtuns backed by Pakistan military on Baramulla. Starting his analysis on his interactions with Sister Emilia Montavani, an Italian nun who witnessed the attackers ransacking the Christian mission in Baramulla, Whitehead constructs the events of one of the most important episode in the contemporary history of Kashmir.
In Sister Emilia’s words, “the Monday after the feast of Christ the King they (the raiders) reach here. Then they started to shoot. They came inside. We were working still. Our dispensary was working still. The hospital had patients. They were on the veranda of the hospital, going from one ward to another. They say: shoot, kill, maro (attack).”
However, she and some of the others were saved, by a Pakistani army officer, who apparently was educated by nuns. Whitehead writes: the arrival of this Pathan officer, Saurab Hyat Khan, put an end to this initial bloodshed. But it was not the end of the mission’s ordeal. All the survivors – nuns, priests, nurses, patients and local non-Muslim refugees – were herded into one small ward of the mission hospital. There were about eighty people in all, including broods of children, and three British boys, one newly born, who had been orphaned in the attack.” Whitehead has also interviewed Khan Shah Afridi, who took part in the raid, who recounted: “We shot whoever we saw in Baramulla. We did not know how many we killed.” All in the name of liberating Muslims from a Hindu ruler!
This raid has left an imprint in Baramulla that anyone visiting the town even today could feel the echoes, silently being reverberated in conversations and discussions with the locals. Once the imposing presence of the security forces is absorbed and the initial emotional barrier of reluctance is broken, one could feel the remorse amongst the local population today for what had happened sixty years ago. Those youth who are playing cricket in the Degree College ground in Baramulla would tell different tales of their aspirations and expectations, but the older generation still remembers the sacking of their town as a decisive event in the history of Kashmir.
Whitehead, while narrating his story, touches upon many vital issues that need larger deliberation; Kashmiriyat and Kashmiri Islam – two most important among them. On Kashmiriyat Whitehead observes: “And it seems the term kashmiriyat was never used before 1947 – it was in part invented as a political rallying cry. Yet its strength has come from a perception that Kashmir has been inclusive in its culture, and that both the Muslim majority and the vastly smaller and more privileged Hindu minority contributed to the language and the culture, respected and honoured the other community’s religious festivals and practices, and so shared a Kashmiri identity which created a bond stronger than the differences of faith and belief.”
Second important issue is what he writes about the Islam in Kashmir. He writes: “There is something quiet distinct about the Kashmiri style of Islam. The traditional, tiered-style mosque architecture has more in common with the Central Asia that with the cupolas of the grand mosques across the plains of north India and Pakistan. The service with its lilting, intoned prayers and responses, has a gentle haunting air and aesthetic appeal which I’ve never found anywhere else.” Clearly Kashmiri Islam is unique in many ways and in fact has shaped the Kashmiryat.
Where does the Kashmiryat stand as a political cry or an emotional and psychological appeal? After almost two decades of violence and victimizations, how much of it is left in the Kashmir Valley? How many use today as a mere political rhetoric and how many really believe and practice it? On the nature of Kashmir Islam, is there a threat to it from a puritanical stream? Undoubtedly, the older generation believes in the Sufi nature of Islam; however does the younger generation also believe in the same? These are important questions that need to be further explored, for they have vital importance to the final resolution of Kashmir conflict.
David Devadas’s In Search of Future: The Story of Kashmir, starts with a mega statement: “Every bit of the book is fact, based on detailed research conducted over the past nine years, although I have used the narrative style of faction to convey the story.” The book is heavy and controversial; one is not sure how factual or the facts, when it makes sweeping generalizations. Consider the following: “Kashmir struggled vigorously to become a modern nation state, but failed to develop a viable model. Kashmiris were hobbled by internecine suspicions as well as the culture of guile and intrigue that grew through centuries of colonial oppression. An even greater weakness is that the aspiration remained stuck in a mindset of contemptuous superiority, one that not only kept it divided within but prompted it to look for a future premised on the oppression of others – a colonist’s model that was out of sync with an age that offered unprecedented opportunities for living together in mutual accommodation.”
The book is likely to remain controversial as this paragraph in the first chapter. But this should not undermine the painful efforts of Devadas to understand the psyche of Kashmir. Given the complexity of the task that he has undertaken, the process needs to be appreciated, though one may not agree with the conclusions. Given the fact that, a simple question posed in Kashmir to the same person is likely to elicit different responses over a period of time, what constitutes the fact becomes questionable. The truth in answer to a question in Kashmir depends on how comfortable the respondent feels to the interviewer. In most cases, there are standard interview answers, which should be probed further and quantified, before making a general assertion.
Devdas’s account of Kashmir’s history starts in 1931 and with 9/11, covering seven decades of political, social and emotional upheaval in three hundred and fifty pages. Herculean task, deftly handled in a journalistic way through certain characters and events from Sheikh Abdullah to AB Vajpayee.
Both the books, though look into an issue that have been widely commented and written about, yet they are refreshing in their own ways.
(By arrangement with the Book Review)
D. Suba Chandran
Assistant Director, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi
A Mission in Kashmir
Andrew Whitehead
Penguin-Viking, New Delhi, 2007, Rs.495, 285 Pages
In Search of a Future: The Story of Kashmir
David Davidas
Penguin-Viking, New Delhi, 2007, Rs.495, 381 Pages
Andrew Whitehead and David Devadas’s works focus primarily on Kashmir Valley. Whitehead gives an extra-ordinary insight into the infamous raid by the pashtuns backed by Pakistan military on Baramulla. Starting his analysis on his interactions with Sister Emilia Montavani, an Italian nun who witnessed the attackers ransacking the Christian mission in Baramulla, Whitehead constructs the events of one of the most important episode in the contemporary history of Kashmir.
In Sister Emilia’s words, “the Monday after the feast of Christ the King they (the raiders) reach here. Then they started to shoot. They came inside. We were working still. Our dispensary was working still. The hospital had patients. They were on the veranda of the hospital, going from one ward to another. They say: shoot, kill, maro (attack).”
However, she and some of the others were saved, by a Pakistani army officer, who apparently was educated by nuns. Whitehead writes: the arrival of this Pathan officer, Saurab Hyat Khan, put an end to this initial bloodshed. But it was not the end of the mission’s ordeal. All the survivors – nuns, priests, nurses, patients and local non-Muslim refugees – were herded into one small ward of the mission hospital. There were about eighty people in all, including broods of children, and three British boys, one newly born, who had been orphaned in the attack.” Whitehead has also interviewed Khan Shah Afridi, who took part in the raid, who recounted: “We shot whoever we saw in Baramulla. We did not know how many we killed.” All in the name of liberating Muslims from a Hindu ruler!
This raid has left an imprint in Baramulla that anyone visiting the town even today could feel the echoes, silently being reverberated in conversations and discussions with the locals. Once the imposing presence of the security forces is absorbed and the initial emotional barrier of reluctance is broken, one could feel the remorse amongst the local population today for what had happened sixty years ago. Those youth who are playing cricket in the Degree College ground in Baramulla would tell different tales of their aspirations and expectations, but the older generation still remembers the sacking of their town as a decisive event in the history of Kashmir.
Whitehead, while narrating his story, touches upon many vital issues that need larger deliberation; Kashmiriyat and Kashmiri Islam – two most important among them. On Kashmiriyat Whitehead observes: “And it seems the term kashmiriyat was never used before 1947 – it was in part invented as a political rallying cry. Yet its strength has come from a perception that Kashmir has been inclusive in its culture, and that both the Muslim majority and the vastly smaller and more privileged Hindu minority contributed to the language and the culture, respected and honoured the other community’s religious festivals and practices, and so shared a Kashmiri identity which created a bond stronger than the differences of faith and belief.”
Second important issue is what he writes about the Islam in Kashmir. He writes: “There is something quiet distinct about the Kashmiri style of Islam. The traditional, tiered-style mosque architecture has more in common with the Central Asia that with the cupolas of the grand mosques across the plains of north India and Pakistan. The service with its lilting, intoned prayers and responses, has a gentle haunting air and aesthetic appeal which I’ve never found anywhere else.” Clearly Kashmiri Islam is unique in many ways and in fact has shaped the Kashmiryat.
Where does the Kashmiryat stand as a political cry or an emotional and psychological appeal? After almost two decades of violence and victimizations, how much of it is left in the Kashmir Valley? How many use today as a mere political rhetoric and how many really believe and practice it? On the nature of Kashmir Islam, is there a threat to it from a puritanical stream? Undoubtedly, the older generation believes in the Sufi nature of Islam; however does the younger generation also believe in the same? These are important questions that need to be further explored, for they have vital importance to the final resolution of Kashmir conflict.
David Devadas’s In Search of Future: The Story of Kashmir, starts with a mega statement: “Every bit of the book is fact, based on detailed research conducted over the past nine years, although I have used the narrative style of faction to convey the story.” The book is heavy and controversial; one is not sure how factual or the facts, when it makes sweeping generalizations. Consider the following: “Kashmir struggled vigorously to become a modern nation state, but failed to develop a viable model. Kashmiris were hobbled by internecine suspicions as well as the culture of guile and intrigue that grew through centuries of colonial oppression. An even greater weakness is that the aspiration remained stuck in a mindset of contemptuous superiority, one that not only kept it divided within but prompted it to look for a future premised on the oppression of others – a colonist’s model that was out of sync with an age that offered unprecedented opportunities for living together in mutual accommodation.”
The book is likely to remain controversial as this paragraph in the first chapter. But this should not undermine the painful efforts of Devadas to understand the psyche of Kashmir. Given the complexity of the task that he has undertaken, the process needs to be appreciated, though one may not agree with the conclusions. Given the fact that, a simple question posed in Kashmir to the same person is likely to elicit different responses over a period of time, what constitutes the fact becomes questionable. The truth in answer to a question in Kashmir depends on how comfortable the respondent feels to the interviewer. In most cases, there are standard interview answers, which should be probed further and quantified, before making a general assertion.
Devdas’s account of Kashmir’s history starts in 1931 and with 9/11, covering seven decades of political, social and emotional upheaval in three hundred and fifty pages. Herculean task, deftly handled in a journalistic way through certain characters and events from Sheikh Abdullah to AB Vajpayee.
Both the books, though look into an issue that have been widely commented and written about, yet they are refreshing in their own ways.
(By arrangement with the Book Review)
Friday, June 12, 2009
The Decade Ahead-Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh
The Decade Ahead
Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh
D. Suba Chandran
Deputy Director, IPCS, New Delhi
This decade has been comparatively much better, when compared to the 1980s and 1990s. There have been numerous positive developments during this decade, despite the see-saw relationship between India and Pakistan, changes in governments at the national level in India, growing instability in Pakistan and post 9/11 economic and political developments at the global level.
Peaceful elections, declining militancy and violence and cross-LoC interactions can certainly be considered as some of the most positive developments of this decade. Undoubtedly, they have set the field for the government and the society to develop further, and move towards a better situation in the next decade. At the same time, there have also been negative developments – as witnessed after the Amarnath Shrine Board crisis, creating further divisions between the regions and societies in terms of region and religion. Further more, there are certain areas, in which the negative status quo is continuing - political equations between the separatists and the mainstream leadership, bad governance and corruption at the state and societal levels.
Where will J&K move towards in the next ten years? Rather, where should J&K move towards during the 2010s? What are the opportunities? What are the challenges? The following questions assume significance, given the current trends during this decade.
Will there be better governance?
Governance, undoubtedly, is the key issue that will address many other challenges in the coming decade. The progress report in this decade is mixed; there were serious efforts made to improve the governance process in J&K. Yet there is a long way to go. Much will depend on how the State and society responds to the process of governance.
Unfortunately, governance has been perceived primarily as the domain of the State, in particular that of the ruling government. Corruption and bad governance can not be attributed to one particular actor in J&K. Everyone needs to take the blame and look inwards, if J&K needs to progress in the forthcoming decade. The Union government, State government, ruling and opposition parties, separatists and militants, security forces, bureaucracy, media, NGOs and the society – every one has played an important negative role in contributing to the present status of governance in J&K. No doubt, J&K is one of the most corrupt states in the entire country.
Governance is a larger concept, and should not be narrowly viewed through the corruption index. This is where, one should look forward to the following, in terms of making J&K a better governed state in the coming decade.
First, the political leadership and the political will. Will there be a significant change in how the present political leadership both at the state and national levels, perceive the governance process in J&K? There are two positive developments in this decade, which hold promise, in terms of leadership. First is Omar Abdullah. Second is Manmohan Singh.
Undoubtedly, despite whatever the critics may say, Omar Abdullah is a charismatic leader, young, dynamic clean and earnest in taking J&K forward. Omar should be the rallying point for J&K in delivering. Now, what are his strengths and weaknesses? He may lack the experience, but is likely to learn faster, given his seriousness. This is where his detractors need to give him the time and space, to learn from his own mistakes. Omar is also the leader of the National Conference, a party which is known for its tactical approaches, being corrupt and shrewd. Whatever may be the negative outlook of the NC, one should also understand, it is the only party with considerable grass roots support in all three regions of J&K and acceptable to the multi-ethnic society. Is there any other party in J&K, that has the support in all three regions? Neither the PDP nor the Congress is likely to grow in all three regions, the way that the NC has already established itself. BJP, despite its performance in the last elections, is unlikely to expand or even repeat its own performance in the next elections.
Besides, Omar Abdullah should take this as a challenge and change the negative image of NC. Unless he is able to transform the NC into a positive force, he will not be able to move forward in the 2010s; it is important that the NC regains its base in all three regions and reforms itself into moderate, secular and forward looking political party. Only Omar could deliver this. For this he needs the support of the seniors within the party, starting from his father. Political stability and development in J&K during the 2010s will depend much on how relevant the NC becomes.
Omar Abdullah may also need the support from New Delhi to make the above change both within his party and in terms of improving the governance process. This is where Manmohan Singh becomes important. With his emphasis on 9 percent growth rate, the Prime Minister needs to provide the right space and positive support for Omar to tighten the governance process, political confidence and a degree of autonomy.
Manmohan Singh should ensure, there is accountability in every single penny spent and action taken in J&K. Lack of accountability by the bureaucracy, security forces and successive government have been the primary reason for the failure of governance process in J&K. Manmohan Singh should also provide the space for Omar, in terms of developing confidence and reaching a political understanding. There have been numerous instances in the past, during which for narrow political objectives, the Congress has indulged in making tactical decisions, forcing the political parties in J&K to take a negative approach. One seriously wishes that Manmohan Sigh does repeat the mistakes of his predecessors. Finally, New Delhi should also provide support, in terms of a improving the political environment in J&K. For long, there have been serious discussions on the question of autonomy, dialogue with all shades of opinions in J&K and withdrawal of troops. Manmohan Singh has already made an initiative through his Round Table Conferences and Working Groups. A sincere pursuit of both these strategies will improve the situation in J&K, there by providing a positive atmosphere to Omar Abdullah to take J&K further.
Will there be effective Right to Information, Autonomous Hill Councils and Panchayat Raj?
Three factors will hold the key for any effective deliverance of governance – Right to Information Act in J&K, Effective use of Autonomous Hill Councils and Strengthening of Panchayat Raj Institutions. Any positive development within J&K in 2010s, will undoubtedly be based on how much success has been achieved in these three crucial areas.
RTI Act is in place in J&K, in theory. It has potential to become the most potent force in making the numerous institutions perform, and more importantly provides the people to ensure, there is accountability. RTI cannot become a success story and revolutionize J&K unless Omar and the people want it to become that way. It has to be a two way process. Society, NGOs and the media – all have to play a positive role in making the RTI a potent weapon to ensure accountability, governance and justice.
While everyone took pleasure in blaming the governments for the all round failure of governance processes, there was little introspection in terms of what positive role if any, the society, NGOs and media have played in ensuring accountability. The state will never be able to deliver unless the people demand accountability, develop and inculcate a work culture and not only censure corruption in the public realm, but also develop a strong ethical code which eschews corruption within civil society. Unfortunately, there is much that desires to be done in all these three respects.
Autonomous Hill Councils in Leh and Kargil, despite criticisms have addressed a very crucial area of governance in J&K – decentralisation. Today the two Hill Councils in Ladakh have provided the space for local leadership to engage in a serious self governance process in a meaningful way, addressed the question of alienation vis-à-vis Jammu and Srinagar and improved the delivery mechanisms. Undoubtedly, effective implementation of the Hill Councils in Ladakh has been one great success story in this decade. Credit should be given to the PDP, especially Mufti Sayeed for making this initiative work, by adequately devolving economic and political power.
Is Autonomous Hill or Regional Councils, the right strategy to move ahead, in terms of improving the governance process? Critics argue, that the Hill Councils may only increase the divide between the communities and regions instead of bringing them together. For example, they argue, the Hill Councils of Leh and Kargil have increased the distance between the two regions and between the Muslim and Buddhist communities of Ladakh. Whatever may be the case, majority in Kargil and Leh do believe, that the Hill Councils have helped in decentralisation and devolution of power.
J&K could consider similar Hill or Regional Councils in other parts of the state, especially in interior regions, such as Doda and Poonch. Alternatively, the State could also work on making the panchayatraj institutions effective and deliver at the grass roots level. Any comparative analysis of the functioning of panchayat raj institutions in Punjab and Himachal Pradesh would underline how fragile and inadequate these structures are in J&K. Successive governments have deliberately kept the panchayat raj institutions in a limbo.
If governance process has to take root in J&K in the 2010s, these three institutions – RTI, Hill/Regional Councils and Panchayat Raj have to deliver. If the State has to take the lead on all three, people have to perform their duties to gain the maximum.
Will the Cross-LoC Interactions improve?
The first bus service between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad started in April 2005, with much fanfare and so much of popular expectations on both sides of the Line of Control (LoC). While there are numerous criticisms on the nature and content of the cross-LoC interactions, that have been initiated so far, not many in J&K on both sides of the LoC will disapprove of its usefulness, and the need to expand this process. India and Pakistan, despite the break down in the dialogue, after the Mumbai attacks in October 2008, have continued with this interaction.
Later another service was opened between Poonch and Rawlakote. Both these services address the needs and aspirations of people living in Kashmir Valley and those living in Jammu region, primarily in the twin districts of Rajouri and Poonch. The primary objective of this bus service was mainly to cater the divided families living along the Line of Control. However, the Line of Control does not stop in the Kupwara district of Kashmir Valley and the divided families do not only live in the above districts. The LoC extends further and goes up to NJ9842 in Ladakh, thus including the Leh and Kargil districts of an important and perhaps the largest sub-region of J&K. There are numerous divided families in Kargil and Skardu region as well.
In 2008, India and Pakistan made another bold move, in terms of opening the LoC for the movement of trucks since October 2008. Initially meant for a fortnightly movement, few months within the inauguration of the trade, it has been converted into a weekly phenomenon on the same two routes, in which buses are plying.
In 2010s, given the limitations on the movements across LoC in terms of divided families and trade, and the there is a need to look beyond, in order to improve the cross-LoC interactions. Tourism is one area, which has enormous potential on this issue, where the legal and political aspects can be underplayed.
Today, the two bus services across Uri and Poonch, carry divided families on a regular basis, without much compromises on legal and political issues related to travel. In promoting tourism for un-divided families, but belonging to the State, the same arrangement can be pursued in facilitating travel. If both countries have certain security concerns, to start with, like how the Chinese did in Tibet, India and Pakistan could allow circuit tourism by identifying select places and specific dates. TO be even more specific, as a pilot initiative, both countries could start with pilgrimage tourism and later expand to other forms.
Both in Kashmir Valley and Rajouri and Poonch districts, for examples, there are numerous shrines of Sufis, who are revered by everyone, cutting across regional and religious divides. For example, Shahdra Sahrief near Rajouri is a major shrine, where Baba Ghulam Shah is workshiped by the Muslims, Hindus and even Sikhs from all over the region, Along with Sai Miran, Nagali Saheb and Buddha Amarnath, this could be an effective religious circuit.
Economically, cross-LoC tourism will boost all the regions. From Poonch to Gilgit, there are numerous places of historical, adventure and religious importance that will attract everyone from all parts of Kashmir. Places of worship belonging to Hindu, Muslim, Sikh and Buddhist communities are spread all over J&K and are not limited to one region. In fact, a Buddhist from Ladakh would love to go up to even Swat and beyond; a Pandit would like to visit the Sharada Peeth in Kishan Ganga Valley; and a Muslim would like to visit Hazratbal and Shahadra Sharief. On historical and other significances, Gulmarg, Dal Lake, Ladakh and Jammu would enthral people from the other side, so would be Gilgit, Skardu and Mirpur for people from J&K. Historically, there are numerous places, from ancient era until today that would attract people to visit each other.
Expanding the cross-LoC interactions should be the most important issue between the two Kashmirs and between India and Pakistan in the forthcoming decade. Given the fact that the status quo is not acceptable and there is no military solution, expansion of the interactions across the LoC is the only way to move forward in the next decade.
Will the Violence further Decline?
Consider the following numbers according to the latest estimate from J&K Police. In 2008, compared to 2007, there was a remarkable decline of violence by 40 per cent. For the first time, since the militancy has started, militancy-related incidents have come down below four digits, around 700 in 2008. Since 1991, violence related incidents always stood above 1000. It has been considerably declining in the last few years; in 2007, it came down to 1090, which further got reduced to 708 in 2008. The significance of this number will be clear, if one takes into account the cumulative violence figure in J&K since 1990. There have been over 67,000 incidents of militant violence, killing more than 21,000 militants, 16,600 civilians, and 5,200 security force personnel. Besides, the J&K Police has seized about 12.5 tonnes of RDX and more than 31 tonnes of other explosives besides 6000 grenades and recovered more than 30,000 AK rifles from terrorists.
According to the latest figures, for the first time since militancy took roots in the state, civilian casualties were lowest in 2008. For the first time, it has come down to two digits; it was 89, the lowest, in the last two decades. There were 164 civilian deaths in 2007. It was in 1996, J&K witnessed the highest number of civilian casualties, when 1,413 people were killed that year when elections were conducted to the state assembly first time after more than six years.
Will the above trend continue in the next decade? Much will depend on the following three internal and external factors. First, a positive outlook amongst the people of J&K resulting in people believing in alternate democratic course of action to fulfil their aspirations. Local inputs to militancy have come down dramatically in the last few years. If the governments of J&K and New Delhi improve the governance process and take measure to restore the confidence in the democratic set up, there will be further decline in violence. This is where New Delhi has to initiate a serious debate relating to demilitarisation, besides renewing the dialogue with various spectrum of public opinion in J&K.
Second, India has to ensure that the cross-LoC interactions continue and expand. Clearly, this cannot be done, without restarting the stalled peace process. Undoubtedly, jumping into any premature dialogue process will be seen as a weakness, unwilling to contemplate the same will also be equally seen weakness. Refusing to talk to a neighbour on crucial issues does reflect a nation that is confident and willing to play a major role in the global system.
Finally, political stability within Pakistan will determine the level of violence in J&K. Will Pakistan be able to sustain and stabilise in the next decade? Will there be political stability? Are there dangers of Taliban violence engulfing the entire Pakistan? These are larger questions, which neither India nor J&K will be able to do much, but the negative implications will be huge. Irrespective of whatever happens in Pakistan, India needs to get ready to face the consequences.
Will the Regions and Religions come closer?
In this decade, there have been serious negative developments relating to radicalisation – religious, regional and ethnic. The crisis relating to Amarnath Shrine Board Land, highlighted the growing divide between the regions and religions. While all these years, Kashmiriyat and Sufism remained the bedrock of Islam in Kashmir Valley, today there is a slow but steady transformation. Especially, the young generation in Kashmir valley and Jammu region are being influenced by the radical ideology, implications of which is inimical to societal peace in the coming decade. Also in the recent years, there is a growing divide between communities, for example the Gujjar and Pahari communities in Jammu, Rajouri and Poonch belt. Ever since the Gujjars were granted the Scheduled Tribe status, the pahari community, which is living in the same socio-economic environment, feels at a dis-advantageous situation.
These are serious developments that have the potential to rupture the social fabric of J&K in the next decade. To begin with, the societies should understand that there are grievances and fears – legitimate and exaggerated vis-à-vis each other. There is a need for a dialogue, to understand each others concerns. There is also a need to realise that there is shared future, that can be achieved only by working together and not by dividing further on regional and religious lines.
To conclude, there have been numerous positive and negative developments in this decade. The next decade holds promise. We can work together to fulfil that promise or fight with each other to ruin it. The choice is in our hands and every one has a responsibility to fulfil.
We wish our leaders – Omar Abdullah and Manmohan Singh to take further bold steps and ensure better governance, and promise them of our support. For, we can’t do much without their initiatives and they can’t do much without our continuous support and trust. So, let us work together and make the next decade productive and more importantly, peaceful.
Jammu, Kashmir and Ladakh
D. Suba Chandran
Deputy Director, IPCS, New Delhi
This decade has been comparatively much better, when compared to the 1980s and 1990s. There have been numerous positive developments during this decade, despite the see-saw relationship between India and Pakistan, changes in governments at the national level in India, growing instability in Pakistan and post 9/11 economic and political developments at the global level.
Peaceful elections, declining militancy and violence and cross-LoC interactions can certainly be considered as some of the most positive developments of this decade. Undoubtedly, they have set the field for the government and the society to develop further, and move towards a better situation in the next decade. At the same time, there have also been negative developments – as witnessed after the Amarnath Shrine Board crisis, creating further divisions between the regions and societies in terms of region and religion. Further more, there are certain areas, in which the negative status quo is continuing - political equations between the separatists and the mainstream leadership, bad governance and corruption at the state and societal levels.
Where will J&K move towards in the next ten years? Rather, where should J&K move towards during the 2010s? What are the opportunities? What are the challenges? The following questions assume significance, given the current trends during this decade.
Will there be better governance?
Governance, undoubtedly, is the key issue that will address many other challenges in the coming decade. The progress report in this decade is mixed; there were serious efforts made to improve the governance process in J&K. Yet there is a long way to go. Much will depend on how the State and society responds to the process of governance.
Unfortunately, governance has been perceived primarily as the domain of the State, in particular that of the ruling government. Corruption and bad governance can not be attributed to one particular actor in J&K. Everyone needs to take the blame and look inwards, if J&K needs to progress in the forthcoming decade. The Union government, State government, ruling and opposition parties, separatists and militants, security forces, bureaucracy, media, NGOs and the society – every one has played an important negative role in contributing to the present status of governance in J&K. No doubt, J&K is one of the most corrupt states in the entire country.
Governance is a larger concept, and should not be narrowly viewed through the corruption index. This is where, one should look forward to the following, in terms of making J&K a better governed state in the coming decade.
First, the political leadership and the political will. Will there be a significant change in how the present political leadership both at the state and national levels, perceive the governance process in J&K? There are two positive developments in this decade, which hold promise, in terms of leadership. First is Omar Abdullah. Second is Manmohan Singh.
Undoubtedly, despite whatever the critics may say, Omar Abdullah is a charismatic leader, young, dynamic clean and earnest in taking J&K forward. Omar should be the rallying point for J&K in delivering. Now, what are his strengths and weaknesses? He may lack the experience, but is likely to learn faster, given his seriousness. This is where his detractors need to give him the time and space, to learn from his own mistakes. Omar is also the leader of the National Conference, a party which is known for its tactical approaches, being corrupt and shrewd. Whatever may be the negative outlook of the NC, one should also understand, it is the only party with considerable grass roots support in all three regions of J&K and acceptable to the multi-ethnic society. Is there any other party in J&K, that has the support in all three regions? Neither the PDP nor the Congress is likely to grow in all three regions, the way that the NC has already established itself. BJP, despite its performance in the last elections, is unlikely to expand or even repeat its own performance in the next elections.
Besides, Omar Abdullah should take this as a challenge and change the negative image of NC. Unless he is able to transform the NC into a positive force, he will not be able to move forward in the 2010s; it is important that the NC regains its base in all three regions and reforms itself into moderate, secular and forward looking political party. Only Omar could deliver this. For this he needs the support of the seniors within the party, starting from his father. Political stability and development in J&K during the 2010s will depend much on how relevant the NC becomes.
Omar Abdullah may also need the support from New Delhi to make the above change both within his party and in terms of improving the governance process. This is where Manmohan Singh becomes important. With his emphasis on 9 percent growth rate, the Prime Minister needs to provide the right space and positive support for Omar to tighten the governance process, political confidence and a degree of autonomy.
Manmohan Singh should ensure, there is accountability in every single penny spent and action taken in J&K. Lack of accountability by the bureaucracy, security forces and successive government have been the primary reason for the failure of governance process in J&K. Manmohan Singh should also provide the space for Omar, in terms of developing confidence and reaching a political understanding. There have been numerous instances in the past, during which for narrow political objectives, the Congress has indulged in making tactical decisions, forcing the political parties in J&K to take a negative approach. One seriously wishes that Manmohan Sigh does repeat the mistakes of his predecessors. Finally, New Delhi should also provide support, in terms of a improving the political environment in J&K. For long, there have been serious discussions on the question of autonomy, dialogue with all shades of opinions in J&K and withdrawal of troops. Manmohan Singh has already made an initiative through his Round Table Conferences and Working Groups. A sincere pursuit of both these strategies will improve the situation in J&K, there by providing a positive atmosphere to Omar Abdullah to take J&K further.
Will there be effective Right to Information, Autonomous Hill Councils and Panchayat Raj?
Three factors will hold the key for any effective deliverance of governance – Right to Information Act in J&K, Effective use of Autonomous Hill Councils and Strengthening of Panchayat Raj Institutions. Any positive development within J&K in 2010s, will undoubtedly be based on how much success has been achieved in these three crucial areas.
RTI Act is in place in J&K, in theory. It has potential to become the most potent force in making the numerous institutions perform, and more importantly provides the people to ensure, there is accountability. RTI cannot become a success story and revolutionize J&K unless Omar and the people want it to become that way. It has to be a two way process. Society, NGOs and the media – all have to play a positive role in making the RTI a potent weapon to ensure accountability, governance and justice.
While everyone took pleasure in blaming the governments for the all round failure of governance processes, there was little introspection in terms of what positive role if any, the society, NGOs and media have played in ensuring accountability. The state will never be able to deliver unless the people demand accountability, develop and inculcate a work culture and not only censure corruption in the public realm, but also develop a strong ethical code which eschews corruption within civil society. Unfortunately, there is much that desires to be done in all these three respects.
Autonomous Hill Councils in Leh and Kargil, despite criticisms have addressed a very crucial area of governance in J&K – decentralisation. Today the two Hill Councils in Ladakh have provided the space for local leadership to engage in a serious self governance process in a meaningful way, addressed the question of alienation vis-à-vis Jammu and Srinagar and improved the delivery mechanisms. Undoubtedly, effective implementation of the Hill Councils in Ladakh has been one great success story in this decade. Credit should be given to the PDP, especially Mufti Sayeed for making this initiative work, by adequately devolving economic and political power.
Is Autonomous Hill or Regional Councils, the right strategy to move ahead, in terms of improving the governance process? Critics argue, that the Hill Councils may only increase the divide between the communities and regions instead of bringing them together. For example, they argue, the Hill Councils of Leh and Kargil have increased the distance between the two regions and between the Muslim and Buddhist communities of Ladakh. Whatever may be the case, majority in Kargil and Leh do believe, that the Hill Councils have helped in decentralisation and devolution of power.
J&K could consider similar Hill or Regional Councils in other parts of the state, especially in interior regions, such as Doda and Poonch. Alternatively, the State could also work on making the panchayatraj institutions effective and deliver at the grass roots level. Any comparative analysis of the functioning of panchayat raj institutions in Punjab and Himachal Pradesh would underline how fragile and inadequate these structures are in J&K. Successive governments have deliberately kept the panchayat raj institutions in a limbo.
If governance process has to take root in J&K in the 2010s, these three institutions – RTI, Hill/Regional Councils and Panchayat Raj have to deliver. If the State has to take the lead on all three, people have to perform their duties to gain the maximum.
Will the Cross-LoC Interactions improve?
The first bus service between Srinagar and Muzaffarabad started in April 2005, with much fanfare and so much of popular expectations on both sides of the Line of Control (LoC). While there are numerous criticisms on the nature and content of the cross-LoC interactions, that have been initiated so far, not many in J&K on both sides of the LoC will disapprove of its usefulness, and the need to expand this process. India and Pakistan, despite the break down in the dialogue, after the Mumbai attacks in October 2008, have continued with this interaction.
Later another service was opened between Poonch and Rawlakote. Both these services address the needs and aspirations of people living in Kashmir Valley and those living in Jammu region, primarily in the twin districts of Rajouri and Poonch. The primary objective of this bus service was mainly to cater the divided families living along the Line of Control. However, the Line of Control does not stop in the Kupwara district of Kashmir Valley and the divided families do not only live in the above districts. The LoC extends further and goes up to NJ9842 in Ladakh, thus including the Leh and Kargil districts of an important and perhaps the largest sub-region of J&K. There are numerous divided families in Kargil and Skardu region as well.
In 2008, India and Pakistan made another bold move, in terms of opening the LoC for the movement of trucks since October 2008. Initially meant for a fortnightly movement, few months within the inauguration of the trade, it has been converted into a weekly phenomenon on the same two routes, in which buses are plying.
In 2010s, given the limitations on the movements across LoC in terms of divided families and trade, and the there is a need to look beyond, in order to improve the cross-LoC interactions. Tourism is one area, which has enormous potential on this issue, where the legal and political aspects can be underplayed.
Today, the two bus services across Uri and Poonch, carry divided families on a regular basis, without much compromises on legal and political issues related to travel. In promoting tourism for un-divided families, but belonging to the State, the same arrangement can be pursued in facilitating travel. If both countries have certain security concerns, to start with, like how the Chinese did in Tibet, India and Pakistan could allow circuit tourism by identifying select places and specific dates. TO be even more specific, as a pilot initiative, both countries could start with pilgrimage tourism and later expand to other forms.
Both in Kashmir Valley and Rajouri and Poonch districts, for examples, there are numerous shrines of Sufis, who are revered by everyone, cutting across regional and religious divides. For example, Shahdra Sahrief near Rajouri is a major shrine, where Baba Ghulam Shah is workshiped by the Muslims, Hindus and even Sikhs from all over the region, Along with Sai Miran, Nagali Saheb and Buddha Amarnath, this could be an effective religious circuit.
Economically, cross-LoC tourism will boost all the regions. From Poonch to Gilgit, there are numerous places of historical, adventure and religious importance that will attract everyone from all parts of Kashmir. Places of worship belonging to Hindu, Muslim, Sikh and Buddhist communities are spread all over J&K and are not limited to one region. In fact, a Buddhist from Ladakh would love to go up to even Swat and beyond; a Pandit would like to visit the Sharada Peeth in Kishan Ganga Valley; and a Muslim would like to visit Hazratbal and Shahadra Sharief. On historical and other significances, Gulmarg, Dal Lake, Ladakh and Jammu would enthral people from the other side, so would be Gilgit, Skardu and Mirpur for people from J&K. Historically, there are numerous places, from ancient era until today that would attract people to visit each other.
Expanding the cross-LoC interactions should be the most important issue between the two Kashmirs and between India and Pakistan in the forthcoming decade. Given the fact that the status quo is not acceptable and there is no military solution, expansion of the interactions across the LoC is the only way to move forward in the next decade.
Will the Violence further Decline?
Consider the following numbers according to the latest estimate from J&K Police. In 2008, compared to 2007, there was a remarkable decline of violence by 40 per cent. For the first time, since the militancy has started, militancy-related incidents have come down below four digits, around 700 in 2008. Since 1991, violence related incidents always stood above 1000. It has been considerably declining in the last few years; in 2007, it came down to 1090, which further got reduced to 708 in 2008. The significance of this number will be clear, if one takes into account the cumulative violence figure in J&K since 1990. There have been over 67,000 incidents of militant violence, killing more than 21,000 militants, 16,600 civilians, and 5,200 security force personnel. Besides, the J&K Police has seized about 12.5 tonnes of RDX and more than 31 tonnes of other explosives besides 6000 grenades and recovered more than 30,000 AK rifles from terrorists.
According to the latest figures, for the first time since militancy took roots in the state, civilian casualties were lowest in 2008. For the first time, it has come down to two digits; it was 89, the lowest, in the last two decades. There were 164 civilian deaths in 2007. It was in 1996, J&K witnessed the highest number of civilian casualties, when 1,413 people were killed that year when elections were conducted to the state assembly first time after more than six years.
Will the above trend continue in the next decade? Much will depend on the following three internal and external factors. First, a positive outlook amongst the people of J&K resulting in people believing in alternate democratic course of action to fulfil their aspirations. Local inputs to militancy have come down dramatically in the last few years. If the governments of J&K and New Delhi improve the governance process and take measure to restore the confidence in the democratic set up, there will be further decline in violence. This is where New Delhi has to initiate a serious debate relating to demilitarisation, besides renewing the dialogue with various spectrum of public opinion in J&K.
Second, India has to ensure that the cross-LoC interactions continue and expand. Clearly, this cannot be done, without restarting the stalled peace process. Undoubtedly, jumping into any premature dialogue process will be seen as a weakness, unwilling to contemplate the same will also be equally seen weakness. Refusing to talk to a neighbour on crucial issues does reflect a nation that is confident and willing to play a major role in the global system.
Finally, political stability within Pakistan will determine the level of violence in J&K. Will Pakistan be able to sustain and stabilise in the next decade? Will there be political stability? Are there dangers of Taliban violence engulfing the entire Pakistan? These are larger questions, which neither India nor J&K will be able to do much, but the negative implications will be huge. Irrespective of whatever happens in Pakistan, India needs to get ready to face the consequences.
Will the Regions and Religions come closer?
In this decade, there have been serious negative developments relating to radicalisation – religious, regional and ethnic. The crisis relating to Amarnath Shrine Board Land, highlighted the growing divide between the regions and religions. While all these years, Kashmiriyat and Sufism remained the bedrock of Islam in Kashmir Valley, today there is a slow but steady transformation. Especially, the young generation in Kashmir valley and Jammu region are being influenced by the radical ideology, implications of which is inimical to societal peace in the coming decade. Also in the recent years, there is a growing divide between communities, for example the Gujjar and Pahari communities in Jammu, Rajouri and Poonch belt. Ever since the Gujjars were granted the Scheduled Tribe status, the pahari community, which is living in the same socio-economic environment, feels at a dis-advantageous situation.
These are serious developments that have the potential to rupture the social fabric of J&K in the next decade. To begin with, the societies should understand that there are grievances and fears – legitimate and exaggerated vis-à-vis each other. There is a need for a dialogue, to understand each others concerns. There is also a need to realise that there is shared future, that can be achieved only by working together and not by dividing further on regional and religious lines.
To conclude, there have been numerous positive and negative developments in this decade. The next decade holds promise. We can work together to fulfil that promise or fight with each other to ruin it. The choice is in our hands and every one has a responsibility to fulfil.
We wish our leaders – Omar Abdullah and Manmohan Singh to take further bold steps and ensure better governance, and promise them of our support. For, we can’t do much without their initiatives and they can’t do much without our continuous support and trust. So, let us work together and make the next decade productive and more importantly, peaceful.
Thursday, June 12, 2008
J&K Elections 2008
J&K Elections 2008
1. Karnah
Karnah has been a NC bastion since 1987, winning all the elections since then.
2. Kupwara
Kupwara, like Karnah has also been a NC bastion. Since 1977, the NC never lost an election here.
3. Lolab
Abdul Haq Khan (PDP) won the seat, marking PDP’s first victory in this constituency. The NC, which won the 1996 and 2002 elections seem to
4. Handwara
Handwara used to be a place where the NC was winning
5. Langate
Langate has always been a NC bastion. Since 1977, it has never lost a single election here.
6. Uri
Uri has also been an NC bastion, though the Congress was able to win in 2002 election, though by a very narrow margin
7. Rafiabad
Rafiabad, except during 1996 elections has always elected the NC, though in 2002 elections in winning margin over the Congress was slender.
8. Sopore
Considered as Syed Ali Geelani’s homeground, the Congress was able to win the elections in 2002, which witnessed less than ten percent polling.
9. Gurez
A new constituency, which voted for the first time in 1996, elected an independent and NC in the last two elections. Gurez has always been known for a high percentage of voter turnout; in the last two elections in 1996 and 2002, the polling was more than 76 percent. This year, though it has come down slightly, yet the voters turn out was over 73 percent.
10. Bandipora
Bandipora used to be a NC bastion. The Awami League of Kukka Parray and Usman Majid replaced the NC in 2002 election.
11. Sonawari
One of Awami League’s few stronghold, Sonawari was known for the support to Kukka Parray.
12. Sangrama
Sangrma used to be a NC stronghold. PDP won this constituency in 2002 for the first time.
13. Baramulla
Like Sangrama, Baramulla also used to be a NC bastion till 2002, when it lost to the PDP.
14. Gulmarg
Like the neighbouring Sangrama and Baramulla, Gulmarg also used to be a NC stronghold until 2002 elections.
15. Pattan
Pattan never used to elect the same party again since 1972. The Congress and NC used to be win each simultaneously.
16. Kangan
Kangan has always been a NC bastion, except during the 1987 elections.
17. Ganderbal
Omar Abdullah (NC) won the seat back from the PDP. A NC bastion since 1977, however saw the PDP taking over in 2002 elections. Omar’s promises on employment and the popular faith in him seem to have made the difference.
18. Hazratbal
Though the NC won the 2002 elections, Hazratbal, which is a separatist stronghold, almost boycotted the elections in 2002, along with the rest of Srinagar constituencies. NC won in 2002, which saw less than 8 percent polling.
19. Zadibal
Zadibal, a separatist bastion, polled less than five percent in 2002. Shahjahan Dar, an independent candidate won the 2002 election.
20. Idgah
Idgah also a separatist bastion, polled less than five percent in 2002, which witnessed the NC winning this seat in Srinagar.
21. Khanyar
Khanyar, like the other constituencies of Srinagar, is also a separatist stronghold. In 2002, it witnessed less than five percent polling.
22. Habbakadal
In Habbakadal, there was less than four percent polling in 2002, which witnessed Raman Mattoo winning this constituency as an independent. Along with Amirakadal, it polled the least in entire J&K during 2002 election.
23 Amirakadal
Amirakadal along with Habbakadal, polled the least in 2002. In 2002, it polled slightly over 3 percent.
24. Sonawar
53. Doda
Abdul Majid (Congress) was successful for the second time in a row. He won the seat in 2002 elections as well.
58. Reasi
Runner up in the last two elections, BJP has finally won the Reasi seat for the first time. Even the 2002 elections, the BJP lost narrowly. For the NC, this constituency has become a far dream, for it has never won here since 1983.
81. Nowshera
Nowshera has been a Congress bastion in the last three elections, winning all of them since 1987
82. Darhal
Mohd Iqbal (independent) won the seat from Puran Singh, another independent who was successful in 2002 elections.
1. Karnah
Karnah has been a NC bastion since 1987, winning all the elections since then.
2. Kupwara
Kupwara, like Karnah has also been a NC bastion. Since 1977, the NC never lost an election here.
3. Lolab
Abdul Haq Khan (PDP) won the seat, marking PDP’s first victory in this constituency. The NC, which won the 1996 and 2002 elections seem to
4. Handwara
Handwara used to be a place where the NC was winning
5. Langate
Langate has always been a NC bastion. Since 1977, it has never lost a single election here.
6. Uri
Uri has also been an NC bastion, though the Congress was able to win in 2002 election, though by a very narrow margin
7. Rafiabad
Rafiabad, except during 1996 elections has always elected the NC, though in 2002 elections in winning margin over the Congress was slender.
8. Sopore
Considered as Syed Ali Geelani’s homeground, the Congress was able to win the elections in 2002, which witnessed less than ten percent polling.
9. Gurez
A new constituency, which voted for the first time in 1996, elected an independent and NC in the last two elections. Gurez has always been known for a high percentage of voter turnout; in the last two elections in 1996 and 2002, the polling was more than 76 percent. This year, though it has come down slightly, yet the voters turn out was over 73 percent.
10. Bandipora
Bandipora used to be a NC bastion. The Awami League of Kukka Parray and Usman Majid replaced the NC in 2002 election.
11. Sonawari
One of Awami League’s few stronghold, Sonawari was known for the support to Kukka Parray.
12. Sangrama
Sangrma used to be a NC stronghold. PDP won this constituency in 2002 for the first time.
13. Baramulla
Like Sangrama, Baramulla also used to be a NC bastion till 2002, when it lost to the PDP.
14. Gulmarg
Like the neighbouring Sangrama and Baramulla, Gulmarg also used to be a NC stronghold until 2002 elections.
15. Pattan
Pattan never used to elect the same party again since 1972. The Congress and NC used to be win each simultaneously.
16. Kangan
Kangan has always been a NC bastion, except during the 1987 elections.
17. Ganderbal
Omar Abdullah (NC) won the seat back from the PDP. A NC bastion since 1977, however saw the PDP taking over in 2002 elections. Omar’s promises on employment and the popular faith in him seem to have made the difference.
18. Hazratbal
Though the NC won the 2002 elections, Hazratbal, which is a separatist stronghold, almost boycotted the elections in 2002, along with the rest of Srinagar constituencies. NC won in 2002, which saw less than 8 percent polling.
19. Zadibal
Zadibal, a separatist bastion, polled less than five percent in 2002. Shahjahan Dar, an independent candidate won the 2002 election.
20. Idgah
Idgah also a separatist bastion, polled less than five percent in 2002, which witnessed the NC winning this seat in Srinagar.
21. Khanyar
Khanyar, like the other constituencies of Srinagar, is also a separatist stronghold. In 2002, it witnessed less than five percent polling.
22. Habbakadal
In Habbakadal, there was less than four percent polling in 2002, which witnessed Raman Mattoo winning this constituency as an independent. Along with Amirakadal, it polled the least in entire J&K during 2002 election.
23 Amirakadal
Amirakadal along with Habbakadal, polled the least in 2002. In 2002, it polled slightly over 3 percent.
24. Sonawar
53. Doda
Abdul Majid (Congress) was successful for the second time in a row. He won the seat in 2002 elections as well.
58. Reasi
Runner up in the last two elections, BJP has finally won the Reasi seat for the first time. Even the 2002 elections, the BJP lost narrowly. For the NC, this constituency has become a far dream, for it has never won here since 1983.
81. Nowshera
Nowshera has been a Congress bastion in the last three elections, winning all of them since 1987
82. Darhal
Mohd Iqbal (independent) won the seat from Puran Singh, another independent who was successful in 2002 elections.
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